Lycan, Colorado Weather Forecast Discussion

652
FXUS65 KPUB 060944
AFDPUB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
344 AM MDT Mon Oct 6 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Cool and cloudy on the plains, with chances for showers later this
evening.
- Sunny and breezy for the San Luis Valley, with elevated fire
  weather conditions.
- Cool again Tuesday, with warming and drying conditions through the
rest of the week.
- Uncertainty increases closer to this weekend, with the
  possibility of better moisture moving into our region.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 343 AM MDT Mon Oct 6 2025
Currently..
Cloud cover continues to increase in coverage and lower in height
across our plains, as upslope deepens behind the cold front that
passes through earlier yesterday evening. Ceilings are ranging from
around 1,500ft over western El Paso County to around 5,000ft over
Pueblo County and the Lower Arkansas River Valley. Winds are
easterly and northeasterly over much of the plains, though speeds
have continued to decrease through the overnight hours.
Precipitation has all remained to our north since early yesterday
evening, though a few showers may still be possible early this
morning north of Highway 50. Temperatures are in the 40s and low
50s. Dewpoints are in the 30s and 40s.
Today and Tonight..
Upslope is expected to continue over our plains throughout the
entire day today, which will keep overcast skies over the majority
of our plains. Models are showing quite a range for high
temperatures, though all are in favor of far cooler than normal
temperatures. The lowest guidance keeps highs in the 40s over the
Pikes Peak region and 50s for Pueblo, though the majority are more
moderate. Have gone with solutions that keep us cloud covered but
allow temperatures to climb into the most agreed upon ranges, with
highs in the low 50s for the Pikes Peak region, the mid 50s for the
rest of the I-25 corridor, and upper 50s to low 60s for the eastern
plains. The warmest spot on the map today will be the San Luis
Valley, with highs in the upper 60s and low 70s. Southerly winds
gusting to 25 mph and clear skies are expected over the valley
today. Spotty elevated fire weather conditions over central and
southern portions of the valley through the late afternoon hours,
when temperatures will be highest, humidities will fall into the low
teens, and winds will be gustiest. At this time, critical fire
weather conditions are not expected, as conditions will not be
widespread or long lived enough to warrant any highlights for the
valley. Low clouds and easterly to southeasterly winds are expected
to remain over the plains. Late this afternoon and this evening,
shortwave energy passes to our south, which looks to help spread
showers and weak thunderstorms across our southeast mountains and
southern plains. The trough axis to our north also passes overhead,
helping to spread spotty showers showers north of Highway 50.
Overall, precip chances through the evening are highest on our far
eastern plains, far southern plains, and over the Palmer Divide,
though qpf is really only significant on our far southeast plains.
Best chances for meaningful rainfall look to be over Las Animas and
Baca Counties, with chances for for a dusting of snow over the
eastern Sangres above 11,000 feet overnight as well. Upslope
continues through the overnight hours, leading to another night of
low clouds across the plains, with fog also possible late tonight
into early Tuesday morning, especially near the mountains.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 343 AM MDT Mon Oct 6 2025
Tuesday...
Westerly flow aloft will continue on Tuesday while the upper ridge
axis is pushed further to our north. The mid-level flow may carry a
bit of moisture into the southern half of our area, leading to some
showers over the southeast plains and southern Sangres, but
otherwise things are expected to remain largely dry. Temperatures
will be on the cool side, though a bit warmer than Monday, with 60s
over the plains and 70s over the San Luis Valley. Meanwhile,
easterly surface winds should keep cloud cover in place over
portions of the plains and I-25 corridor.
Wednesday Onwards...
High pressure and upper-level ridging will continue building in over
our region through the latter half of the week. Temperatures will
continue to increase, with highs climbing back into the 70s-80s,
while most of the area remains dry aside from our western mountains.
Main uncertainty in the long term will be the behavior of the
tropical cyclone remnants from the southern Pacific. Long-term
models disagree on whether to eject the main circulation further
west or carry the moisture into our region through the jet. Models
diverge greatly on this after about Thursday-Friday, but it is
possible that at least some of the moisture will make its way
towards us, bringing wetter and potentially cooler conditions later
this weekend and into next week.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1159 PM MDT Sun Oct 5 2025
For KCOS and KPUB..Mainly MVFR ceilings are expected to persist
throughout much of the forecast period, with improvement to VFR
ceilings possible for a brief period from around 22Z through 02Z
Monday afternoon. IFR ceilings will also be possible, especially
through the early morning hours, though confidence was too low to
include in either TAF at this time. Winds will be mainly light and
southeasterly to easterly.
For KALS..VFR conditions and mostly clear skies are expected
throughout the TAF period. Southerly to southwesterly winds gusting
to around 28kt are expected for Monday afternoon.&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...EHR
LONG TERM...GARBEROGLIO
AVIATION...EHR

NWS PUB Office Area Forecast Discussion