Lynchburg, Virginia Weather Forecast Discussion

035
FXUS61 KRNK 171517
AFDRNK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1117 AM EDT Wed Sep 17 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A coastal low moves away and weakens through tomorrow. A few
showers are possible today over the Piedmont. Dry conditions
and warmer temperatures return for the end of the week, with
another increase in rain chances early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1110 AM EDT Wednesday...
Key Messages:
1) Showers tapering off, increasing sunshine for most.
2) Potential dense fog tonight where it rained.
An upper low was located the Tidewater of VA this morning. It
will track slowly to the north-northeast into this evening and
weaken.
Main changes to the forecast were to lower pops further west and
increase sunshine. Otherwise, forecast on track as should be dry
for most by mid afternoon.
With rain and clearing skies/light winds dense fog looks to be a
potential especially in the Piedmont and north of the
Roanoke/New River Valley late tonight.
Previous discussion...
A closed low over eastern VA will become an open wave
today and weaken. The moisture moving around the low into the
area was keeping clouds and occasional showers in our area. We
will continue to see light showers mainly along and east of the
Blue Ridge today before ending this evening. Many locations will
not see rain, and where it does fall amounts will be relatively
light, less than a third of an inch. Highs today will be mainly
in the low to upper 70s, with the eastern Piedmont possibly
struggling into the upper 60s. Tonight, skies will gradually
clear, with overnight lows in the low to upper 50s, except for
the cooler spots like Burke`s Garden which will dip into the
mid/upper 40s. Some fog is possible Thursday morning.
Confidence in the near term is high.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 AM EDT Wednesday...
Key Points:
1) Temperatures a few degrees above normal each day.
2) Dry weather expected.
Weak troughing remains over the area for the end of the week,
although the main area of low pressure is well NE over eastern
Canada. Surface high pressure over the area will help keep rain
at bay with skies mostly clear through the period.
Highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s are expected, with temperatures
6-10 degrees warmer than normal. Parts of the Piedmont may even
see upper 80s. Good radiational cooling at night will support
temperatures in the 50s to low 60s (with cooler temperatures for
the mountain valleys).
Confidence in the above weather scenario is high.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 200 AM EDT Wednesday...
Key Points:
1) Front to bring chance of precipitation early next week.
This weekend, a positively-tilted trough will dip into the OH
Valley. High pressure will wedge in from the NE, keeping most of
the area dry. We may see a few light radar echoes over the
southern Blue Ridge, but for now have kept rain chances below
10%. After a warm Saturday, high temperatures drop by Sunday
into the 70s areawide Sunday and Monday as a dry backdoor front
moves through the region north to south. Overnight lows will be
close to normal.
Confidence in the long term is moderate.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 200 AM EDT Wednesday...
VFR conditions expected today, with light rain possible mainly
over the eastern Piedmont, bringing conditions down to MVFR at
times. Northerly winds develop and improve ceilings this
afternoon. Most will scatter out this evening. Possible patchy
fog for much of the area Thursday morning.
EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...
Drier and sunnier weather returns later Thursday and Friday, but
the chance for showers or perhaps an isolated thunderstorm
returns for the weekend and into early next week.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SH
NEAR TERM...SH/WP
SHORT TERM...SH
LONG TERM...SH
AVIATION...SH

NWS RNK Office Area Forecast Discussion