Lytten Kentucky Weather Forecast Discussion

945
FXUS63 KJKL 152035
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
435 PM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry, seasonably pleasant weather continues across eastern
  Kentucky through the work week.
- Temperatures will remain near or just above climatological
  averages for the duration of the forecast period.
- While confidence in specific details remains low, the next
  chance of showers/storms will come this weekend.
- The probability for breezy to gusty winds Sunday is increasing
  with a 10-30% chance of seeing gusts of 40 mph at the surface.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 311 PM EDT WED OCT 15 2025
After extensive valley fog this morning, sunny skies prevail for
most locations at mid-afternoon, with temperatures having risen
into the low to mid-70s, making for another delightful mid-October
afternoon. A bit more mid-level cloud cover is noted north of the
Mountain Parkway due to a diffuse, remnant cold front sagging
southward. Overall, surface high pressurewith a ~1027 mb center
along the Minnesota-Ontario borderremains in firm control of our
weather, keeping a weak northerly flow across the region. Aloft,
500 hPa ridging is still firmly in place over the heart of the
nation, with a ridge axis stretching from the Texas Gulf Coast
northward into Manitoba. At 500 hPa, vorticity energy is
propagating down the eastern side of the ridge axis while a trough
digs over New England and the Atlantic Provinces.
As the trough intensifies near/over the Canadian Maritime Provinces,
weak height falls will occur over the Lower Ohio Valley through
tonight, attending the passage of the aforementioned dry cold
front. Through the remainder of the period, the 500 hPa ridge axis
will slowly shift to east of the Mississippi River valley and the
associated surface high will shift east into Quebec, allowing for
winds to veer more southeasterly by Thursday night. Dry air
wrapping clockwise around the surface high will seep in behind
the cold front tonight and Thursday, with the driest air overhead
Thursday night. Dew points are in the 50-55F range this
afternoon, but behind the boundary, they should fall closer to
40F on Thursday, with some locations possibly reaching the upper
30s. This could be low enough to allow for some patchy frost in
the coldest sheltered valleys late Thursday night and early
Friday morning.
In terms of sensible weather, patchy mid-level cloud cover is
expected through tonight. Otherwise, temperatures are expected to
dip into the 40s areawide by daybreak Thursday morning. Some fog
is possible, primarily in the more sheltered river valleys. On
Thursday, it will be modestly cooler with a drying northeast
breeze under mostly sunny skies. High temperatures are expected to
range from the mid-60s to low 70s, coolest northeast to warmest
southwest. Chillier temperatures follow for Thursday night with
lows ranging in the upper 30s to mid 40s, though a few mid 30s are
possible in the coldest hollows where a touch of patchy frost
cannot be ruled out.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 433 PM EDT WED OCT 15 2025
A ridge of high pressure remains over Kentucky through Friday. Skies
will start out partly cloudy, increasing to mostly cloudy conditions
throughout the day. Temperatures will likely range from the low 70s
north and east of Jackson, and mid to upper 70s south and west of
the city. Winds remain fairly light out of the east. Friday night,
warmer air continues to advect into the area, with model soundings
and moisture profiles suggesting high clouds. Temperatures cool into
the low to mid 50s, with valleys dipping into the upper 40s. If
clearing begins a bit earlier in the night, valleys could drop a
little colder.
Saturday, the area will remain under southwesterly flow ahead of an
approaching trough from the west. The probability of showers
increase through the day as a system continues its progression
through the state. While specifics are still hard to pin down, this
system is progressive enough where significant hydrologic issues are
not anticipated, even with heavier rainfall. Showers will increase
in coverage through the night and continue through the day Sunday.
There remains a low chance (

NWS JKL Office Area Forecast Discussion