Macdill Air Force Base, Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

932
FXUS62 KTBW 121200
AFDTBW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
800 AM EDT Fri Sep 12 2025
...New UPDATE, AVIATION...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 800 AM EDT Fri Sep 12 2025
An area of leftover light rain continues to move into southwest
Florida early this morning, otherwise plenty of clouds continue to
stream across the region. The stalled boundary remains across
south Florida with high pressure over the eastern U.S. setting up
a low level north to northeast flow into the region. This flow is
continuing to bring some drier air south, but there should still
be enough moisture for some showers and a few thunderstorms later
this afternoon and evening, especially across southwest Florida.
Overall the current forecast looks ok, but did make some tweaks
to rain chances early this morning across southwest Florida.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 800 AM EDT Fri Sep 12 2025
Some light rain will move across the southwest Florida terminals
early this morning, but no restrictions are anticipated. Later
this afternoon and evening scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected to develop which could cause some MVFR/local IFR
conditions. Otherwise, VFR conditions should prevail with
northeast winds at 5 to 10 knots through the TAF forecast period.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)...
Issued at 417 AM EDT Fri Sep 12 2025
Showers and storms have been developing over the southern waters
this morning and some light rain could be making it inland. A
stalled frontal boundary across south FL. An upper level trough
is expected to move across today will finally push the front
east of the area later today and into Saturday. This will allow
drier air to filter in bringing PWs down below 2 inches for the
first time in a few days. Showers and storms should gradually push
south and expected to stay south of the I-4 corridor. North to
northeasterly winds prevail during this time.
Ample cloud coverage will be in place most of the today, but some
clearing is anticipated especially on Saturday. This will keep
afternoon temperatures in the upper 80s through the period.
Overnight lows Saturday morning will decrease statewide, but only
to around 70 degrees.
&&
.LONG TERM (SUN-THU)...
Issued at 417 AM EDT Fri Sep 12 2025
On Sunday, morning lows will dip into the mid 60s in portions of
the Nature Coast. Drier air remains across most of the state with
lower rain chances in place. Paradise will finally get a break
from high rain chances and clearing skies. High temperatures stay
in the upper 80s with dewpoints dropping into the 60s along the
Nature Coast. Model guidance brings troughiness to the East Coast
later next week and pockets of higher moisture back into the area.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 417 AM EDT Fri Sep 12 2025
Showers and storms will continue to develop over mainly the
central and southern waters as a front remains stalled across
south Florida. Outside of thunderstorms, this will support winds
in the offshore waters around 10 to 15 knots and seas of to
around 3 feet offshore, and 1 to 2 feet nearshore. Then, a strong
upper level trough will push front farther south, which will help
keep conditions mostly dry for the weekend.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 417 AM EDT Fri Sep 12 2025
A stalled front across south FL will support showers and storms
across southern portions of the state. Meanwhile, drier air will
limit convection across areas along the I-4 corridor northward.
Northeasterly winds are anticipated most of the period. Then, a
strong upper level trough will push the front south for the weekend
allowing humidity and rain chances to decrease, but RH values will
remain well above critical levels.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  89  74  90  73 /  30  10  30   0
FMY  88  72  89  72 /  70  40  40  10
GIF  88  72  89  71 /  40  10  30   0
SRQ  87  72  89  71 /  40  30  30  10
BKV  89  68  89  67 /  20  10  30   0
SPG  86  74  87  73 /  30  20  30  10
&&
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 2
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 2
For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
    https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION...Close
SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Delerme
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR...Shiveley

NWS TBW Office Area Forecast Discussion