Macdill, Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

209
FXUS62 KTBW 060624
AFDTBW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
224 AM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 224 AM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025
- Lighter winds are forecast today, but periods of gusty winds
   over coastal waters will still make for hazardous boating
   conditions from Englewood northward each afternoon/evening.
- There is a 40% to 60% chance of showers and thunderstorms
   today, but slightly lower chances for mid-week (30% to 50%).
- A pattern change is anticipated this weekend as a cold front
   moves into the region.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 224 AM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025
Broad upper-level ridging has settled over the FL peninsula as a
large surface high pressure feature dominates the eastern seaboard.
In response, what was once a strong pressure gradient has begun to
relax, with just a slight change in pressure across the state. Thus,
the breezy easterly flow of the past few days has largely begun to
subside. However, with the surface ridge across the Mid-Atlantic
region, an easterly flow will continue to be present. In addition, a
weak surface low continues to be present across the Bahamas. This
developed several days ago along a stalled frontal boundary and
persists with the atmosphere in it`s proximity remaining pretty
static.
The combination of these two features has also allowed for deep
tropical moisture to be pulled northward from the Caribbean
across the state. Given the enhanced forcing in proximity of the
low, this has allowed for showers and thunderstorms to continue
moving onshore along the east coast of Florida. During the
afternoon hours when heating maximizes buoyancy, these storms can
continue to propagate to the western half of the state. With the
background easterly flow continuing to weaken, this also allows
for more resistance along the west coast as the sea breeze tries
to form. This enhances the ascent and favors fairly good
convective coverage once again this afternoon. Thus, rain chances
look almost identical to yesterday at 40% to 60%.
Over the next couple days, the SW to NE-oriented upper-level ridge
axis will shift to an E-W orientation as the synoptic pattern
becomes more zonal. This will happen as the ridge simultaneously
becomes even more stretched out than it already is. The surface high
will shift farther east out into the Atlantic in response, favoring
continued weakening of the easterly flow by mid-week. Moisture will
remain sufficient to keep isolated to scattered storms in play, but
the overall coverage will start to decrease and really be more
confined to south of I-4 during the second half of the week as the
flow trends more ENE - and thus brings in slightly drier air again.
As the weekend approaches, an upper-level low takes shape across the
Plains and then looks to be steered towards Florida by a larger and
stronger ridge axis building over Texas. Driven by this low, an
attendant cold front will push through the region over the weekend,
with perhaps some drier and once again breezier conditions to follow
suit. With the overall synoptic pattern favoring this outcome, there
is increasing confidence that temperatures will drop a few degrees
as well - with highs only in the low 80s and lows in the 60s to
around 70 degrees.
One point of note: if this system shifts slightly farther west or
can organize a surface area of low pressure a little quicker than
the current forecast would suggest, then the region could see some
stormier weather along and ahead of the system`s arrival. That,
however, does not reflect the most likely outcome at this time.
Regardless, the second half of the weekend is looking rather nice
and will be a welcome change of pace from conditions anticipated
this week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 224 AM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025
As easterly flow continues to bring in additional moisture, some
MVFR CIGs are favored this morning, generally breaking up shortly
after sunrise. The main impact for the afternoon will be another
window for thunderstorms generally starting somewhere between 18Z to
21Z, but becoming most widespread after 21Z. Gusty and erratic winds
will be possible in the vicinity. As the flow starts to shift a bit
more NE over the next couple days, the potential for convective
impacts will decrease slightly across the Central interior and
Tampa Bay area, but will remain higher across SWFL.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 224 AM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025
Periods of gusty winds to around 20 knots continue to be
possibility, with the evening and overnight hours north of
Englewood seeing the highest potential risk for stronger winds.
The risk is also higher offshore as opposed to nearshore. Mariners
should continue to use caution in these waters. Additionally,
thunderstorms are forecast this afternoon over land and will move
offshore late in the day, leading to locally hazardous conditions
in the vicinity. A similar pattern will repeat each day through
the work week.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 224 AM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025
Easterly flow continues to dominate, but has become lighter than
the last few days. Another round of afternoon/evening showers and
thunderstorms is expected as well. As RH values remain well above
critical thresholds, fire weather concerns are low at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  89  77  90  75 /  50  10  40  10
FMY  89  75  88  75 /  60  20  60  10
GIF  88  75  88  74 /  60  20  50  10
SRQ  89  74  89  73 /  50  20  40  10
BKV  88  73  89  70 /  50  10  40   0
SPG  86  76  87  76 /  40  10  30  10
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&
$$
Flannery

NWS TBW Office Area Forecast Discussion