Madeline, California Weather Forecast Discussion

914
FXUS65 KREV 270922
AFDREV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
222 AM PDT Sat Sep 27 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Showers and isolated thunderstorms probable in eastern Sierra
  south of Tahoe this afternoon. Otherwise, warm and dry today.
* A strong Pacific storm will bring showers and thunderstorms, gusty
  winds, and cooler temperatures Sunday through midweek.
* A warming and drying trend will begin at the end of next week
  into the following weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Minor deepening of discrete low pressure in southern California
will allow moisture and weak instability to lift northward into
the region today. The best overlap of moisture and instability
today will be across the eastern Sierra south of the Tahoe Basin
where there will be 15-30% chance of showers and isolated
thunderstorms this afternoon. A few light showers may develop
overnight in Mineral and Churchill counties. Elsewhere, warm and
dry weather with typical afternoon breezes will prevail today.
Potent low pressure in the eastern Pacific will support a multi-
day stretch of unsettled weather that begins Sunday and lasts
through midweek. Initial storm effects will manifest as an
increase in both winds and shower/thunderstorm activity Sunday and
Monday prior to the arrival of the first of two cold fronts
Monday night. While thunderstorm coverage appears to be somewhat
similar on both days (mainly along and east of the Sierra Front),
Monday features stronger wind shear that will likely help
organize, strengthen, and sustain thunderstorms--some of which may
become severe. Additional showers and embedded thunderstorms will
accompany the cold front`s arrival Monday night, but will likely
be confined to the Sierra. Light snowfall will even be possible
along highest Sierra peaks Monday night into Tuesday morning.
The secondary cold front arrives on Tuesday and will be slower to
progress compared to its predecessor. As a result, winds will
remain gusty and we`ll likely see daily chances of showers
continue into Thursday before we dry out in earnest. There is some
uncertainty in coverage of showers as it will largely depend on
how far south the cold front moves. Winds will remain gusty
Tuesday and Wednesday with further cooling bringing midweek highs
into the upper 50s and 60s. A warming and drying trend is expected
late next week as low pressure departs to the east.
-Salas
&&
.AVIATION...
Isolated showers and thunderstorms may impact KMMH this afternoon
(between 21Z and 03Z) when odds reach 20-30%. Brief MVFR conditions,
mountain obscuration, and lightning will accompany any showers and
t-storms that approach/drift over KMMH. Elsewhere, VFR conditions
prevail today with light NE/E breezes becoming W/SW gusts of
15-20 kt in the late afternoon--mainly after 00Z.
Potent low pressure will increase shower and thunderstorm activity
Sunday through midweek. This storm will also introduce stronger
SW/W winds aloft and at the surface, which may present periods of
LLWS and mountain wave turbulence concerns.
-Salas
&&
.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&
$$

NWS REV Office Area Forecast Discussion