Madison, Tennessee Weather Forecast Discussion

180
FXUS64 KOHX 151129
AFDOHX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
629 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 620 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025
- Low chance for showers and t-storms tonight (~20%), best
  chances are west of I-65.
- Afternoon highs remain a few degrees above normal through most
  of the upcoming work week.
- Low to medium rain chances (20-40%) Friday through Sunday, with
  a decreasing trend in temperatures for the weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1045 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025
A weak disturbance remains situated to our northwest (near the
Missouri Bootheel) which is associated with a cluster of
thunderstorms across western TN and western KY. An odd upper-level
configuration with a ridge to our north and a cutoff low to our
southeast is resulting in northerly flow, so this activity is
moving north to south. Continued isolated showers or
thunderstorms is possible west of I-65 overnight with the
strongest producing ~40 mph winds and small hail.
An isolated shower or thunderstorm is also possible Monday
afternoon, though it appears best activity is being signaled
across the mountains of eastern TN as the cutoff low to our
southeast begins to move north, with a separate area of convection near
the Mississippi River thanks to better moisture. Thus, overall
chances for Middle TN is only ~10%. High temperatures for Monday
and Tuesday are forecast to remain 5-8 degrees above normal.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Monday)
Issued at 1045 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025
Much of the upcoming work week should remain fairly quiet
weather-wise with a continuation of relatively warm and dry
conditions each day. Temperatures are forecast to remain above
normal through Friday. We continue to see a favored signal for
decreasing temperatures and increasing rain chances toward the end
of the forecast period thanks to an approaching upper-level low.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 620 AM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025
Showers continue to travel north to south from I-40 through Perry
and Wayne Counties. These continue to be non severe and will stay
away from area terminals today. Otherwise VFR conditions expected
for the most part...expect for some light fog along the plateau
for CSV for SRB for the next couple of hours.
It seems like the SRB visibility sensor is having issues/could
very well be spiders/ and is reporting very low visibilities so
will continue with the AMD NOT SKED. Once the sun comes up and if
this issue goes away will remove this line. However it will most
likely need to come back again overnight until the visibility
sensor can be cleaned and maintained. There could be light fog
again overnight for CSV and SRB with 6SM after 06Z.
Winds will be southerly and light 5 kts or less.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      92  68  91  64 /  10  10  10   0
Clarksville    93  65  92  61 /  10  10   0   0
Crossville     83  60  79  57 /  10  10  10   0
Columbia       90  65  90  64 /  30  10   0  10
Cookeville     86  63  83  60 /  10  10  10   0
Jamestown      84  62  81  57 /  10  10  10  10
Lawrenceburg   88  64  87  61 /  20  10  10  10
Murfreesboro   91  65  90  63 /  10  10  20   0
Waverly        91  65  91  63 /  10  10  10   0
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Sizemore
LONG TERM....Sizemore
AVIATION.....12

NWS OHX Office Area Forecast Discussion