Mahogany Lake, Nevada Weather Forecast Discussion

327
FXUS65 KREV 030858
AFDREV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
158 AM PDT Fri Oct 3 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Showers will continue today as the low pressure system moves
  into the region.
* Temperatures remain below average through the upcoming week,
  with today seeing the lowest temperatures along with light snow
  above 8000 ft.
* Drier and cool conditions prevail this weekend through much of
  next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
* The primary upper level low will move into the area today, with
  a continuation of the wet, cool weather. With the exception of
  Churchill, Pershing, and Mineral counties which have ongoing
  precipitation through around 5-7 AM, the majority of Western NV
  will have a break in the showers until around 12-1 PM. After
  that, the HREF/CAMs all show scattered showers throughout
  western NV until around 10 PM to Midnight. These showers will be
  the hit/miss variety compared to the widespread rainfall
  experienced on Thursday. Showers today will generally produce up
  to 0.01-0.10". But, with cold air aloft and minor instability
  in place, we can`t completely rule out a isolated, 20% chance
  for thunderstorms. Storms will produce local bursts of rainfall
  between 0.10-0.20", small hail, and lightning as the main
  threats.
* For the eastern Sierra, rain with higher elevation snow will be
  ongoing in Mono County through around 5-7 AM. This area will
  then see a break in the precipitation until around 12 PM,
  followed by hit/miss showers through the evening. Meanwhile,
  showers will continue for much of the morning for the eastern
  Sierra north of I-80 into Lassen County. The remainder of the
  Sierra will then see hit/miss showers by around 10 AM to 12 PM
  into the evening. With a colder airmass moving in and
  thicknesses decreasing, snow levels will fall to around
  8,000-9,000`. Only minor (1-3") accumulations are expected for
  higher elevations in the eastern Sierra, and the overall impacts
  will be minor. But be mindful if traveling over mountain passes
  today as you may experience wet, icy roads.
* This system will exit the area early Saturday, with long-wave
  trough pattern of the western half of the US. It will leave our
  area under a cooler, northwest flow into Sunday. The
  precipitation will end, but temperatures will remain on the
  cooler side. High and low temperatures will end up between 10-15
  degrees below average. As a note, the colder areas of the Sierra
  will have lows in the mid-20s and some of the colder areas in
  western NV may see low temperatures down to 32 degrees.
* For the long-term, ensembles have a weak retrograding low over
  the West into Tuesday. We`ll maintain dry weather and trending
  toward climatology for temperatures. Into the middle to end of
  next week, ensembles are showing another trough developing over
  the western US/eastern Pacific. This may introduce precipitation
  and cooler temperatures by the end of the week but confidence is
  low in the long-term pattern. -McKellar
&&
.AVIATION...
* Scattered hit/miss rain showers with MVFR to local IFR for
  western NV terminals are likely after 18-20z through 03-06z. For
  KTRK/KTVL, MVFR to IFR in light showers and low ceilings leading
  to mountain obscurations through around 03-06z. Snow is
  additionally possible mainly above 8,000`. For KMMH, -RA is
  likely until around 12-14z, followed by more scattered hit/miss
  showers by 18-20z. This will lead to MVFR to IFR conditions as
  well as mountain obscurations.
* Winds are overall light for all terminals today, with sustained
  winds around 10 kts and gusts to 20 kts. Some minor turbulence
  and LLWS is expected through this evening for the eastern Sierra
  terminals. -McKellar
&&
.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&
$$

NWS REV Office Area Forecast Discussion