Malpais Mesa Wilderness, California Weather Forecast Discussion

853
FXUS65 KVEF 191143
AFDVEF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
443 AM PDT Fri Sep 19 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Tropical moisture will fuel chances for more showers and
  thunderstorms today.
* Slight chances for showers and thunderstorms will linger through
  the weekend, with more uncertainty next week as additional
  tropical moisture could get pulled northward.
&&
.DISCUSSION...through Thursday. Thunderstorms are still active as of
this typing so will keep it brief. Storms will slowly track north
through the morning, with new development possible farther south in
the dry slot this afternoon, favoring the mountains. Friday night
through the weekend should be more of a low-grade monsoon pattern,
with storms developing over the mountains in the afternoons and
dissipating after sunset. The new cutoff low developing off the
central California coast will be the wild card for the upcoming
week. If and when this low moves east, it will tap into moisture
still lingering in our area and/or pull up more moisture from the
tropics, setting off another round of showers and storms. There is a
lot of model disagreement on whether and when this happens, as well
as how far north or south the low might be if and when it occurs, so
confidence in next week`s forecast is extremely low. The main
message is that thunderstorm season isn`t quite done yet.
&&
.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 12Z Forecast Package... Winds
will be light and variable through the morning before breezy south-
southeast winds pick up late-morning between 8 and 10 kts. Isolated-
to-scattered thunderstorms expected in the vicinity of the terminal
between 19 and 00Z today, with less areal coverage compared to
yesterday. Breezy southwesterly winds expected around sunset before
winds become light and variable once again overnight with clearing
skies.
For the rest of southern Nevada, northwestern Arizona and
southeastern California...For the 12Z Forecast Package...Isolated-to-
scattered showers and thunderstorms return to the region this
afternoon, with best chances of occurrence in the vicinity of
terminals between 19 and 00Z. The exception will be KDAG, KEED, and
KIFP, where thunderstorm areal coverage is expected to be too sparse
to include in the prevailing TAF. Expect typical diurnal trends to
winds outside of thunderstorm influence.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Morgan
AVIATION...Soulat
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NWS VEF Office Area Forecast Discussion