Manasota, Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

021
FXUS62 KTBW 170618
AFDTBW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
218 AM EDT Wed Sep 17 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 217 AM EDT Wed Sep 17 2025
An upper low and surface low pressure center remains over the mid-
Atlantic states. These features will be slow to lift out remaining
over that region through Thursday when it finally lifts out to the
northeast over the western Atlantic. Closer to Florida, weak upper
level ridging and surface high pressure northeast of the Bahamas and
over the southeast U.S. ridges over Florida. This will keep a
predominant east-northeast wind flow over the region for the next
couple of days. The 17/00Z upper air sounding is already showing
increasing moisture over the region with a PWAT of 1.66 inches.
Model guidance is still showing some drier air with a PWAT around
1.5 inches over the Nature Coast, which may limit rain chances over
that area today and Thursday. Moisture will be a little more
abundant over central and southwest Florida with PWAT values around
1.6 - 2.0 inches, which will equate to slightly higher rain chances
over those areas for today and Thursday.
By Friday morning, an inverted trough sits between the Bahamas and
the east coast of Florida. This feature will become the dominant
weather feature over the region through the weekend. Models are
showing a notch of drier air over Florida for Friday on the west
side of this trough with PWAT values dropping to around 1.2 - 1.6
inches. This will equate to slightly lower rain chances on Friday
and Saturday, especially for Tampa Bay northward. By Sunday, the
inverted trough shifts slightly westward bringing an increase in
moisture with PWAT values reaching 1.6 - 2.0 inches. This will allow
for scattered showers and isolated storms each afternoon across the
Florida peninsula for Sunday and continuing each day through the
middle of next week. The highest rain chances will likely be over
the east coast of Florida and southwest Florida.
Near seasonal temperatures expected through the period, with mid to
upper 80`s to low 90`s expected each afternoon. Overnight lows will
remain in the 60`s and 70`s through the week, then in the low to mid
70`s over the weekend and into next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 217 AM EDT Wed Sep 17 2025
VFR conditions and light winds less than 10 knots expected at all
terminals through the period. Rain and storm chances increase today,
so will hold VCSH and TEMPO -SHRA at PGD/FMY/RSW from 12Z through
18Z, then VCTS through 00Z. Will hold VCTS starting at 18Z for
TPA/PIE/LAL/SRQ and continue through 01Z. Some gusty winds and brief
periods of MVFR CIGS and VSBY will be possible in the vicinity of
storms.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 217 AM EDT Wed Sep 17 2025
East-northeast winds around 10-15 knots and seas 2 feet or less will
prevail over the eastern gulf waters through Saturday. A slight
uptick in winds and seas expected late Saturday into Sunday with
northeast winds around 15 knots and seas up to 3 feet possible.
Scattered showers and isolated storms possible each day, with the
highest chances from Tampa Bay southward.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 217 AM EDT Wed Sep 17 2025
No fire weather concerns expected through the week as relative
humidity values remain above critical levels and winds remain below
15 mph. Scattered showers and isolated storms possible each day,
with the highest chances south of the I-4 corridor.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  89  74  90  75 /  50  30  30  10
FMY  87  73  90  73 /  60  40  70  20
GIF  89  73  91  73 /  60  30  40  10
SRQ  87  72  90  73 /  50  30  40  20
BKV  89  68  91  68 /  40  20  30  10
SPG  86  74  88  75 /  50  30  30  10
&&
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 6
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 2
For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Wynn
DECISION SUPPORT/CLIMATE...Oglesby

NWS TBW Office Area Forecast Discussion