Manatawny, Pennsylvania Weather Forecast Discussion

114
FXUS61 KPHI 070716
AFDPHI
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
316 AM EDT Sun Sep 7 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Cold front is through most of New Jersey and Delaware, but will
become nearly stationary and weak low pressure will ride along
this boundary later today. High pressure builds in from the west
tonight through Tuesday. Low pressure tracks along the coast
Wednesday. A cold front passes through on Thursday, followed by
high pressure on Friday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The cold front that brought an active Saturday is now fully
offshore, but the anafrontal setup, aided by an incoming
shortwave, has resulted in light showers over most of the area.
This will be the general theme through the morning, with the
precipitation shield gradually moving east through the AM hours.
Rainfall rates generally will be under a tenth per hour, and
this is really just a beneficial rain at this point.
High pressure nudging and the cold front pulling away will
result in gradual drying conditions through Sunday. Rain should
shut off by midday west of the I-95 corridor, while hanging on
through the early to mid afternoon over the coastal plain. Skies
gradually clear from west to east, with mostly sunny skies
expected in the Lehigh Valley and Poconos by the mid afternoon,
and areas near the coast remaining mostly cloudy to overcast
through most of the day. Temperatures will be 10-15 degrees
cooler than yesterday with the Canadian airmass moving in. Highs
only get into the low to mid 70s.
For tonight, high pressure continues to establish control.
Mostly clear skies are anticipated overnight resulting in
temperatures dropping into the upper 40s/low 50s. Coastal areas
stay in the mid to upper 50s/lower 60s with some clouds hanging
on for the first half of the night. Sea-surface temperatures in
the 70s will also keep things warmer near the immediate coast.
The dry airmass moving in likely will prevent fog development,
so it should be a relatively quiet night overall.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will be centered over the area on Monday before
lifting into northern New England Monday night and Tuesday.
Although the center of the high will depart Tuesday night, the
base of that high will extend down into the Northeast and Mid-
Atlantic. Low pressure organizes and develops over the Southeast
Tuesday night.
In terms of sensible weather, dry through at least Tuesday.
Sunny and seasonable, though slightly below normal, on Monday
with highs in the low to mid 70s. Seasonably chilly Monday night
with lows in the upper 40s to low 50s, through in the mid and
upper 50s in Delmarva and along the New Jersey shore. There is
the potential for radiational cooling in the southern Poconos,
Lehigh Valley, and northern New Jersey where skies will be clear
and winds will be calm. Not as much of a chance for radiational
cooling in the Pine Barrens of New Jersey as some clouds may
begin to build in from the south. Clouds begin to increase on
Tuesday as moisture builds in from the south with highs similar
to that of Monday.
Some showers may develop Tuesday night ahead of low pressure
over the Southeast beginning to lift towards the Mid-Atlantic,
mainly over Delmarva and southeast New Jersey. Though QPF should
mostly be minimal, up to 1/4 inch of rain is possible along the
coasts. Lows generally ion the upper 40s to low 50s in the
southern Poconos, northern New Jersey, and Lehigh Valley, and in
the mid to upper 50s, possibly even in the low 60s, in southern
New Jersey and Delmarva.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Low pressure tracks along the coast on Wednesday. The center of
the low should stay well enough offshore, however, to keep the
bulk of the rain over the ocean. But enough showers should
spread at least along the coasts, possibly as far west as the
I-95 corridor. QPF should be minimal. Extensive cloud cover on
onshore flow will keep temperatures cool throughout, with highs
generally in the lower 70s.
High pressure centered near Hudson Bay builds down into the
Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Behind the departing low, a mild
airmass spreads into the region, and Thursday looks to be the
warmest day of the next 7, with highs in the upper 70s to around
80, which actually is normal for this time of the year.
A cold front passes through the region Thursday night, but it
looks to be dry. Temperatures will be a few degrees below normal
to close out the week.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.
Through 12z...Relatively high confidence in prevailing VFR even
with some showers at the Lehigh Valley terminals. Forecast
becomes more uncertain for the I-95 corridor as guidance has
lower CIGs going right up to the Delaware River. For now, put
brief MVFR periods late tonight for KTTN and KPNE but left KPHL
and KILG VFR through the night. Cannot rule out some lower CIGs
at those terminals (around 30% chance for MVFR CIG at
KPHL/KILG). For the South Jersey terminals, higher confidence in
prevailing MVFR through the night. Periods of light rain
continue at all terminals through the night but not expecting
any visibility restrictions. Winds out of the northwest around
5-10 kt. Low to moderate confidence.
Today...MVFR CIGs hang around through most of the morning over
New Jersey and getting close to the I-95 corridor. Stratus
begins to lift and erode by 15z near the I-95 terminals and then
later over South Jersey, more so between 16z-19z. Showers move
out by the late morning. Higher confidence in continuing VFR at
KRDG/KABE. Winds out of the northwest around 10 kt. Low to
moderate confidence.
Tonight...VFR. Northwest winds around 5 kt. High confidence.
Outlook...
Monday through Tuesday...VFR. NSW.
Tuesday night through Wednesday...Generally VFR, but cannot
rule out sub-VFR conditions, mainly at KMIV/KACY, in low clouds
and a few SHRA.
Thursday...VFR. NSW.
&&
.MARINE...
No marine headlines expected through tonight. North/northwest
winds around 10-20 kt and seas around 3 feet. Periods of rain
expected on the waters through the morning and most of the
afternoon.
Outlook...
Sub-SCA conditions expected Monday through Monday night. The
pressure gradient tightens starting on Tuesday as low pressure
approaches from the south, and SCA conditions are possible
through Wednesday night for northeast winds gusting to 25 kt and
seas building to around 5 feet. Sub-SCA conditions return
Thursday.
Rip Currents...
Today, winds become northwest at 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to
20 mph. Breaking waves will be 1 to 2 feet with south to
southeast swells at 5 to 7 second period. This may be enough to
result in a MODERATE risk for the development of dangerous and
life threatening rip currents for the Jersey Shore from Ocean
county to Cape May county, and a LOW risk for the development of
dangerous and life threatening rip currents for the Jersey
Shore in Monmouth county and for Delaware Beaches.
On Monday, winds will be north to northeast at 10 to 15 mph.
Breaking waves will be 1 to 2 feet with southeast swells at a 7
second period. As a result, there is a LOW risk for the
development of dangerous and life threatening rip currents at
the Jersey Shore and at Delaware Beaches.
For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS
NEAR TERM...Hoeflich
SHORT TERM...MPS
LONG TERM...MPS
AVIATION...Hoeflich/MPS
MARINE...Hoeflich/MPS

NWS PHI Office Area Forecast Discussion