Manning, North Dakota Weather Forecast Discussion

490
FXUS63 KBIS 081438
AFDBIS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
938 AM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Areas of smoke return to parts of western and south central
  North Dakota today into this evening.
- Warm and mainly dry to start the week.
- Low to medium chances for showers and thunderstorms return for
  the second half of the week through the upcoming weekend.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 932 AM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
A shortwave continues to traverse across the state this morning
which has lead to showers and even a few rumbles of thunder in
the southwest. A very dry layer at the surface will likely
evaporate majority of rain from showers before it reaches the
surface. Quiet weather continues across the state this morning,
thus no updates are needed at this time.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 233 AM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
Current surface analysis places high over the Midwest into the
Great Lakes region while modest low stretches from the Canadian
Prairies into the Northern Plains. Upper level analysis places
broad ridge over much of the western CONUS, with low noted off
the Pacific Coast. Over our area, a few light showers noted over
eastern Montana nudging into southwest North Dakota affiliated
with a weak short wave moving through the ridge, but these
continue to be very light and have been dissipating over the
past few hours.
With the exception of a few light morning rain showers over the
southwest, a quiet day is expected with upper level ridge over
region. With warmer air moving in, expect high temperatures to
climb into the upper 70s to mid 80s over most locations, which
is about 5 to 10 degrees above average. Some smoke tries to make
its return to western and south central North Dakota as the
aforementioned modest surface low/front passes over our area.
On Tuesday, ridge amplifies over the region in response to the
aforementioned Pacific low moving onshore. With that said, a
modest wave drops down the front of the ridge which looks to
cool temperatures a few degrees, mainly over the west. Any
precpitation from this wave should remain well to our
east/southeast.
Wednesday will be a day of transition as ridge gets pushed to
the east gradually passing over our area as western CONUS low
meanders east a bit but broadens out. Various short waves
ejecting from the low will lift up the backside of the ridge,
bringing chances for precipitation to our area overnight.
Thursday through Sunday active pattern remains in place as
initial upper low meanders its way towards the northeast before
opening up as it passes just to our west, while in the meantime
gets replaced by another western CONUS upper low. This will
lead to ongoing low to medium chances (mainly medium, especially
west) for showers and some thunderstorms.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 642 AM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
Areas of smoke may move into southwest and parts of south
central North Dakota today into this evening, which could bring
reduced visibility. Over southwest North Dakota, isolated
thunderstorms are possible this morning, though ceilings should
remain rather high. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Johnson
DISCUSSION...JJS
AVIATION...JJS

NWS BIS Office Area Forecast Discussion