Mannington, New Jersey Weather Forecast Discussion

469
FXUS61 KPHI 071830
AFDPHI
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
230 PM EDT Sun Sep 7 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure moves offshore as high pressure builds in tonight
through Tuesday. Another low tracks along the coast Wednesday.
A cold front passes through on Thursday, followed by high
pressure on Friday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of early this afternoon, some rain lingers across the
southern Delmarva and far southern NJ, but partly to mostly
sunny skies now encompass most areas northwest of the I-95
corridor. The surface front is to our southeast with surface low
pressure moving northeast near Cape Cod and out to sea. The
remaining rain should end before sunset with clouds breaking in
much of the area by then as well.
For tonight, any lingering evening clouds should mostly
dissipate overnight as high pressure slowly builds in. Lows will
be chilly, with 50 or less in most suburban and rural spots in
NJ and PA, but low-mid 50s in the urban core, immediate coast,
and across the Delmarva.
Surface high pressure center moves into New York State during
the day Monday, providing a cool, dry but not particularly
strong north to northeast wind. Skies will be mostly sunny and
highs should rebound nicely into the mid 70s for most of the
region... cooler beaches and especially Poconos.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure lifts into northern New England Monday night and
Tuesday. Although the center of the high will depart Tuesday
night, the base of that high will extend down into the Northeast
and Mid- Atlantic. Low pressure organizes and develops over the
Southeast Tuesday night.
In terms of sensible weather, dry through at least Tuesday.
Seasonably chilly Monday night with lows in the upper 40s to
low 50s, through in the mid and upper 50s in Delmarva and along
the New Jersey shore. There is the potential for radiational
cooling in the southern Poconos, Lehigh Valley, and northern New
Jersey where skies will be clear and winds will be calm. Not as
much of a chance for radiational cooling in the Pine Barrens of
New Jersey as some clouds may begin to build in from the south.
Clouds begin to increase on Tuesday as moisture builds in from
the south with highs similar to that of Monday.
Some showers may develop Tuesday night ahead of low pressure
over the Southeast beginning to lift towards the Mid-Atlantic,
mainly over Delmarva and southeast New Jersey. Though QPF should
mostly be minimal, up to one tenth of an inch of rain is
possible along the coasts. Lows generally in the upper 40s to
low 50s in the southern Poconos, northern New Jersey, and Lehigh
Valley, and in the mid to upper 50s, possibly even in the low
60s, in southern New Jersey and Delmarva.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Low pressure tracks along the coast on Wednesday. The center of
the low should stay well enough offshore, however, to keep the
bulk of the rain over the ocean. But enough showers should
spread at least along the coasts, possibly as far west as the
I-95 corridor. QPF should be minimal, around one quarter of an
inch or less. Extensive cloud cover on onshore flow will keep
temperatures cool throughout, with highs generally in the lower
70s.
High pressure centered near Hudson Bay builds down into the
Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Behind the departing low, a mild
airmass spreads into the region, and Thursday looks to be the
warmest day of the next 7, with highs in the upper 70s to around
80, which actually is normal for this time of the year.
A cold front passes through the region Thursday night, but it
looks to be dry. Temperatures will be a few degrees below normal
to close out the week.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.
Thru 0Z...VFR or shortly becoming VFR with some clearing. Winds
generally out of the northwest around 5-10 kt. Moderate
confidence.
Tonight...VFR. Northwest winds around 5 kt. High confidence.
Monday...VFR. North/northeast winds around 5 to 10 kt. High
confidence.
Outlook...
Monday Night through Tuesday...VFR. Light NE to ENE winds 10 kts
or less.
Tuesday night through Wednesday...Generally VFR, but cannot
rule out sub-VFR conditions, mainly at KMIV/KACY, in low clouds
and a few SHRA.
Thursday and Friday...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
No marine headlines expected through Monday. NW winds 10-15 kts
with a few gusts to 20 kts becoming N after midnight, then NE on
Monday. Waves 3 to 4 feet.
Outlook...
Sub-SCA conditions expected Monday night. The pressure gradient
tightens starting on Tuesday as low pressure approaches from
the south, and SCA conditions are possible through Wednesday
night for northeast winds gusting to 25 kt and seas building to
around 5 feet. Sub-SCA conditions return for Thursday and Friday.
Rip Currents...
Today, winds become northwest at 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to
20 mph. Breaking waves will be 1 to 2 feet with south to
southeast swells at 5 to 7 second period. This may be enough to
result in a MODERATE risk for the development of dangerous and
life threatening rip currents for the Jersey Shore from Ocean
county to Cape May county, and a LOW risk for the development of
dangerous and life threatening rip currents for the Jersey
Shore in Monmouth county and for Delaware Beaches.
On Monday, winds will be north to northeast at 10 to 15 mph.
Breaking waves will be 1 to 2 feet with southeast swells at a 7
second period. As a result, there is a LOW risk for the
development of dangerous and life threatening rip currents at
the Jersey Shore and at Delaware Beaches.
For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MPS/RCM
NEAR TERM...Hoeflich/RCM
SHORT TERM...MJL/MPS
LONG TERM...MJL/MPS
AVIATION...Hoeflich/MJL/RCM
MARINE...Hoeflich/MJL/RCM

NWS PHI Office Area Forecast Discussion