Many Skulls Trail, Arizona Weather Forecast Discussion

311
FXUS65 KFGZ 271138
AFDFGZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
438 AM MST Sat Sep 27 2025
.SYNOPSIS...Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will
continue over the region through Sunday. Some stronger storms may
contain large hail, damaging winds, and very heavy rainfall, which
could lead to flash flooding. Conditions dry out by early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...A closed upper low will remain nearly stationary over
the Imperial Sand Dunes through at least this evening. An unstable
and moist air mass has already established itself, although shear
values have decreased for today. Weak s/wvs moving around the low
have caused periodic flares of convection, otherwise, the boundary
layer has cooled too much to rely on surface heating alone.
Much of the night has been quiet so far, but IR imagery and radar
now indicate one such disturbance that has initiated some spotty
convection over southern Yavapai County early this morning. This
activity will increase through sunrise, with coverage then
increasing further as solar heating develops.
So, another active is expected and once again, isolated severe
storms cannot be ruled out. However, the potential for rotating
storms is fading.
By tonight, the low starts moving eastward in response to deep
upstream troughing. This may keep some nocturnal convection in the
picture as mid-level temperatures continue to cool. The low moves
through northern Arizona Sunday, with convection continuing.
Much drier air then establishes itself quickly in the wake of the
trough on Monday, with dry, breezy and slightly warmer conditions
for much of next week.
&&
.AVIATION...Saturday 27/12Z through Sunday 28/12Z...SCT-NMRS
SHRA/TSRA and ISOLD +TSRA through the the period. Any locations with
precipitation may produce MVFR. Sfc winds outside of storms will not
affect flight operations.
OUTLOOK...Sunday 28/12Z through Tuesday 30/12Z...SCT-NMRS SHRA/TSRA
and ISOLD +TSRA through Sunday afternoon. Areas with precipitation
may produce MVFR. Shower and thunderstorm activity decreases rapidly
from west to east Sunday night. VFR from Monday onward. Sfc winds
outside of storms will not affect flight operations.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Saturday and Sunday...Scattered to numerous showers
and thunderstorms will continue. Stronger storms may be severe and
capable of producing flash flooding. Winds outside of thunderstorm
activity will be southerly at 5 to 15 mph each day.
Monday through Wednesday...Much drier with daytime temperatures
rising to around normal, overnight temperatures will become chilly
in spots. Daytime winds south through southwest at 10 to 20 mph.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...Peterson
AVIATION...Peterson
FIRE WEATHER...Peterson
For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

NWS FGZ Office Area Forecast Discussion