Manzanola, Colorado Weather Forecast Discussion

839
FXUS65 KPUB 250903
AFDPUB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
303 AM MDT Thu Sep 25 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Warmer today, and even warmer tomorrow.
- Areas of frost in San Luis Valley (SLV) this morning, more
  patchy frost in the SLV tomorrow morning.
- Showery weekend in the mountains, especially along the
  CONTDVD; mainly dry plains.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 301 AM MDT Thu Sep 25 2025
Temps over the SLV towards sunrise are expected to fall in the 30-35
range and this will allow for patchy areas of frost this morning.
On the large scale, Omega block pattern has evolved over the western
half of the CONUS. This will keep our region in an area of
descending motion, and expect it to be 100% dry today with
temperatures returning to seasonable values. Flow aloft is relatively
weak, so anticipate relatively weak diurnal flow over the region
today.
For tonight, frost once again will be possible over the SLV, however
bot duration and areal coverage will be less, so not hilites have
been issued at this time.
Temps will continue to warm up for Friday, with max temps reaching
in the mid 80s over most of the plains, with L70s in the valleys.
Moisture will begin to increase over the CONTDVD region and isolated
to scattered showers will return, especially across the San
Juans.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 301 AM MDT Thu Sep 25 2025
Closed low over the southwest CONUS will continue to slowly push
east and this southerly flow in advance of this system will continue
to increase the moisture over the mountains. Overall best chance of
rain this weekend will be over the San Juans, but chances of rain
will increase over all of the higher terrain. Most widespread
coverage will be on Sunday, and it will be several degrees cooler
over the mountain on Sunday as compared to Saturday. There will be a
chance of a few showers pushing east onto the I-25 corridor on
Sunday afternoon.
Early next week, the closed low will fill and de-amplify as it moves
northeast, Nonetheless, some troughieness will move over the plains
and this may allow for a slightly better chance of showers over
parts of the plains on this day. With moisture already in place over
the mtns, scattered showers and tsra are expected. Chances of rain
are expected to decrease over all of the region by midweek, with
temperatures generally remaining in the 80s over the plains and 70s
valleys. /Hodanish
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1110 PM MDT Wed Sep 24 2025
VFR conditions with light diurnal wind regimes are expected
at COS, PUB and ALS over the next 24 hours.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory until 8 AM MDT this morning for COZ069>071.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...MOORE

NWS PUB Office Area Forecast Discussion