Maplecrest, New York Weather Forecast Discussion

661
FXUS61 KALY 120557
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
157 AM EDT Fri Sep 12 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build in today resulting in continued dry
conditions and seasonable temperatures through Saturday. A
disturbance will bring isolated to scattered showers mainly
north of Albany Saturday night through Sunday. In wake of the
disturbance, high pressure will build back in early next week
with more dry weather along with above normal temperatures.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Mid level clouds south of Albany will gradually dissipate early
this morning. Otherwise, just some patchy valley fog in
typically favored spots occurring. High pressure will build
south from Quebec today resulting continued dry conditions with
just some fair weather cumulus clouds around this afternoon.
Highs look to be a few degrees cooler than Thu, but very close
to normal. Surface ridging persists tonight with tranquil
weather. With mainly clear skies and light winds, lows should
drop into the 40s to mid 50s with patchy fog developing again in
favored sheltered areas.
Weak high pressure remains over the region on Sat, providing
dry conditions. Heights aloft start to lower during the day in
response to a trough approaching from SE Canada. So there could
be some extra clouds around at times, although there will be
enough breaks for temperatures to reach the upper 70s in most
valley locations.
An open wave/progressive upper level short wave trough is then
expected to track SE across the region Sat night into Sun. This
system is moisture starved, so only isolated to widely scattered
showers are anticipated with light rainfall amounts in some
spots. There may be just enough instability developing Sun
afternoon (up to 500 J/Kg of CAPE) for a few brief thunderstorms
mainly south of Albany. Temperatures look to remain mild. The
short wave exits Sun night with dry conditions returning.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key Message:
- Continued dry with above normal temperatures through much of
  next week.
Discussion:
Ridging both at the surface and aloft will build back in Mon and
looks to persist through much of next week. This pattern will result
in tranquil weather with above normal temperatures and patchy
fog in favored sheltered areas most nights. With a Rex Block
type pattern aloft setting up (ridging Great Lakes/Northeast,
upper low SE CONUS), any coastal development should be
suppressed well to our south through the period. Bottom line is
dry weather is likely to continue for the foreseeable future.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions at KPOU, KPSF, and KALB continue through the TAF
period. Due to light and variable winds between 3 and 5 knots
and high to mid-level cloud coverage, patchy fog continues to be
limited in development through this morning for KALB, KPSF, and
KPOU. For KGFL, winds will periodically increase to 3-5 knots
which will move the patchy fog away from the terminal. But when
winds are calm, patchy fog will re-develop and fluctuate
conditions between MVFR/IFR/LIFR. Continued to mention LIFR/IFR
conditions in TEMPOs through 12z with MVFR/VFR conditions in the
prevailing line. Otherwise, VFR conditions return for KGFL from
12z to the end of the TAF period. Light north to northwest
winds less than 5 knots is forecasted for all TAF sites through
the TAF period.
Outlook...
Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...Webb

NWS ALY Office Area Forecast Discussion