428 FXUS63 KILX 282300 AFDILXArea Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Lincoln IL 600 PM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry and hot conditions this week will lead to worsening drought impacts and an increased risk of field fires.
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.DISCUSSION... Issued at 142 PM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
Midday surface map indicated a ridge axis stretched from the central Great Lakes southwest to TX. Light to calm winds and unseasonably warm temperatures in the mid to upper 80s were found across central IL. 50s dewpoints made the heat a bit more tolerable.
12z model suite continues to offer little hope for a break in this pattern through the end of the week. Upper level ridging looks to grip the region for the next several days, and with the dry air warming efficiently, highs around 90F are likely through at least Tuesday, then mid-upper 80s beyond. Large diurnal ranges will occur in the low RH airmass, so lows in the 50s will be favored through the period. Some ensemble guidance hints at upper waves starting to suppress the ridge by next weekend. However, models are often too quick to break down these ridges. NBM continues to advertise dry and well above normal temperatures through next weekend.
The result of another week of this pattern will be worsening drought impacts across all of central/SE IL. In addition, field fires will also be a concern as harvest activity peak. Light winds through the forecast should mitigate the risk of rapidly spreading fire.
25
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.AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Monday Evening) Issued at 600 PM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
VFR conditions through the period, with little to no cloud cover. Winds light and variable overnight, but will be more sustained out of the northeast on Monday.
Geelhart
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.CLIMATE... Issued at 600 PM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
Record high temperatures through Wednesday:
Location Monday Tuesday Wednesday -------- ---------- ---------- --------- Bloomington 100 (1953) 98 (1953) 92 (1897) Champaign 99 (1953) 91 (1971) 92 (1897) Charleston 99 (1953) 92 (1933) 94 (2019) Decatur 100 (1953) 94 (1922) 93 (1897) Lincoln 101 (1953) 93 (1952) 91 (2019) Olney 101 (1953) 93 (1952) 94 (1952) Peoria 98 (1953) 91 (1933) 89 (1937) Springfield 100 (1953) 92 (1971) 91 (2019)
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.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. &&
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NWS ILX Office Area Forecast Discussion