321 FXUS63 KILX 071658 AFDILXArea Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Lincoln IL 1158 AM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A warming trend could bring temperatures near 90 F by the end of the week.
- Little or no rainfall is anticipated over the next 7 days.
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.DISCUSSION... Issued at 1248 AM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
High pressure over the Midwest will bring dry and relatively cool weather through Monday. Temperatures will reach the low 70s today, rising to the mid 70s by Monday as high pressure departs and winds shift southerly. The warming trend will continue through mid-week, with a subtle shortwave trough moving over the Mississippi Valley on Tuesday and mid-level heights steadily increasing Wednesday through Friday. Temperatures are expected to reach the mid 80s on Wednesday, with upper 80s likely from Thursday through Sunday. As the ridge axis builds over central Illinois this weekend and 850mb temperatures approach 20 C, some locations may reach 90 F.
While dry and 90 is the base case for next weekend, it`s worth noting that the past couple runs of the deterministic ECMWF have shown a tendency to break down the blocking pattern and send an upper- level low equatorward into the Great Lakes. It`s an outlier right now, but if the broader guidance trends more toward this solution it could thwart the dry and 90 narrative for next weekend.
MJA
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.AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon) Issued at 1156 AM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
VFR conditions will continue through the period. Skies will be mostly clear, although some isolated diurnal Cu are possible this afternoon between 4-6 kft. Winds will be northwesterly through this afternoon with speeds up to 10 kts, then light/variable overnight before becoming southeasterly into the day on Monday.
Erwin
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.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. &&
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NWS ILX Office Area Forecast Discussion