633 FXUS62 KJAX 120551 AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 151 AM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, HYDROLOGY...

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Hazardous Beach & Surf Zone Conditions Today and Monday. Frequent rip currents all local beaches High Risk. Rough Surf, Breakers 6-9 ft High Surf Advisory through Tonight

- Moderate Tidal Flooding Today: Coast, ICWW & St. Johns River Basin. Extended duration of tidal flooding for St. Johns River next week. Minor Impacts at coast & ICWW Sunday

- Small Craft Advisory Conditions through Monday

.NEAR TERM...(Today and Tonight)...

Nor`easter conditions are quickly waning and will continue to due so today as the coastal low off the Carolina coast moves farther northeast. Though winds have weakened elevated tides are expected to result in minor flooding this afternoon along the Atlantic coast while moderate flooding continues within the St Johns River basin for the next few days.

There will be a dry period this morning as wake northwesterly flow becomes established across the area. However, moisture wrapping back around the low will lead to drizzle and periods of light rain, mainly across southeast GA this afternoon and evening. That light drizzle may make its way toward the Jacksonville area around sunset and linger through the evening before moisture is scoured out by incoming dry area to the west overnight.

A bit more sunshine across portions of northeast FL will allow highs to push into the low 80s but lingering cloud cover over southeast GA will keep temperatures cooler, reading in the mid 70s, this afternoon. Clearing skies tonight and lighter winds will lead to good radiational cooling with inland lows falling to the mid/upper 50s and low/mid 60s at the coast.

.SHORT TERM...(Monday through Tuesday night)

Dry air and high pressure will continue to settle in across the forecast area on Monday and Tuesday as the area of low pressure moves off to the northeast, with partly cloudy to mostly clear skies along transitioning to mostly clear by the end of the period. High daytime temperatures will reach into the lower 80s for the beginning of the week with overnight low temperatures dropping down into the mid to upper 50s for inland areas and in the lower to mid 60s along the shoreline and for areas along the St Johns River.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)

Dry weather with mostly clear skies are expected to remain prevalent for midweek through Saturday as drier air associated with high pressure remains in place over the region through the majority of the forecast period. High temperatures will trend near the seasonal average through the rest of the week and into the weekend, with initially cool overnight low temperatures warming to be closer to average levels by Saturday.

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS)

Drying northwesterly flow will scour out low clouds through the rest of the predawn hours, leading to prevailing VFR conditions with northwesterly breezes around 5-10 knots. Northwesterly winds will continue throughout the forecast period with gusts around 15-20 knots through the afternoon hours.

Moisture wrapping around a departing coastal low off the coast of the Carolinas will push another round of drizzle and low stratus into KSSI this afternoon and evening with IFR conditions possible after 00z. Drizzle may reach the Jax Metro terminals after sunset.

.MARINE...

Winds continue to decrease across the local waters but Small craft advisory conditions will persist through Monday due to lingering elevated combined seas. High pressure builds north of the region Tuesday and Wednesday, with a bout of breezy northeast winds trailing a dry frontal passage.

.HYDROLOGY...

Winds turning offshore will trend tidal levels lower along the Atlantic coast and within the mouth of the St Johns Rive with higher high tides this afternoon peaking at Minor Flood levels (1.5-2.0 feet MHHW). For the Atlantic beaches, this afternoon`s high tide will be the last elevated tide and subsequent high tides will continue to lower. A Coastal Flood Advisory will be in effect through the afternoon for the beaches. The Advisory for the mouth of the St Johns is likely to continue through the upcoming week as trapped tidal water slowly drains.

For the middle/upper St Johns River basin Moderate Flooding is expected at high tide for at least the next few days as trapped tides slowly discharge. The Moderate Flood impacts are most likely from Downtown Jacksonville (Main Street Bridge) southward to Lake George where high tides will reach peak water levels around 2.0-2.5 ft MHHW. Northeast winds return midweek which may prolong minor or elevated tidal flooding through the upcoming week.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 73 57 81 55 / 30 20 0 0 SSI 76 63 79 63 / 20 30 0 0 JAX 79 61 82 60 / 10 10 0 0 SGJ 79 64 79 65 / 10 10 0 0 GNV 82 59 85 58 / 0 0 0 0 OCF 81 61 83 59 / 0 0 0 0

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Coastal Flood Warning until 5 AM EDT Tuesday for FLZ038-132-137- 325-633.

High Rip Current Risk through late Monday night for FLZ124-125- 138-233-333.

High Surf Advisory until 2 AM EDT Monday for FLZ124-125-138-233- 333.

Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ124- 138-233-333.

Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT Tuesday for FLZ125-225.

GA...High Rip Current Risk through late Monday night for GAZ154-166.

Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ154- 166.

High Surf Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for GAZ154- 166.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ450.

Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Monday for AMZ452-454.

Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Monday for AMZ470-472-474.

NWS JAX Office Area Forecast Discussion