Marjorie Kinnan Rawlings Historic State Park Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

548
FXUS62 KJAX 142341
AFDJAX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
741 PM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025
...New UPDATE, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf
- Tidal Flooding Continues this Week. Highest impacts: St. Johns River
  Basin south of Duval County. Increasing water levels again mid-
  week
- High Rip Current Risk at Area Beaches through Friday
- Small Craft Advisory Outer Waters through Thurs Night
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 720 PM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025
Gorgeous evening under clear skies and light winds, with the
approaching backdoor cool front sliding southward down the
Carolinas trailed by low clouds and increasing NE winds. This
feature will arrive at the local coast during the pre-dawn
hours, with come coastal clouds, increasingly breezy NNE winds but
dry conditions. Temperatures tonight will be seasonably cool, but
a little warmer for some compared to last night with increase low
level and moisture and boundary layer winds, ranging from the
mid/upper 50s well inland to low/mid 60s toward the coast.
Only main forecast change was to extend the ongoing coastal flood
advisory through Wed evening.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today through Tonight)
Issued at 200 PM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025
Generally high pressure dominates the region with pleasant temps
mostly in the 80s, except for mid to upper 70s along the coast
from onshore. A weak trough of low pres/re-enforcing backdoor
front expected to move into the region later tonight. This will
bring in some low level moisture and a bit cooler airmass going
into Wed. With the winds increasing a bit tonight, don`t expect as
much patchy to areas of fog as this morning so for now is not
included in the tonight forecast. Lows tonight again on the cool
side with some upper 50s inland and upper 60s coast under mostly
clear skies.
&&
.SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM...
Issued at 200 PM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025
(Wednesday through Monday)
Dry and warm conditions persist through the week under mid/upper
ridging building over the region. Breezy NNE winds on Wednesday
may bring a few sprinkles onshore to Flagler county. Large surface
high pressure over the Great Lakes shifts southeastward and
wedges down the eastern seaboard into Friday pushing another
reinforcing dry front through the area. This setup will maintain
the dry airmass (PWATs ~1 inch) over the region and breezy NE
winds. Surface high pressure then shifts off the southeast US
coast this weekend shifting the local flow to more southerly
resulting in some moisture return to the area. An upper trough
deepens across the central US as a cold front moves across the SE
US this weekend. The front will move across the area late Sunday
into Monday bringing our next chance for rain. Models continue to
disagree on the evolution of the upper trough and moisture return
ahead of the front. At this time, have isolated to widely
scattered showers with a few embedded thunderstorms Sunday into
Sunday night.
Temperatures will be around to just above seasonable with highs in
the upper 70s along the coast to the low-mid 80s inland. Cool
mornings continue with lows in the low-mid 50s for inland SE GA to
the mid-upper 60s along the coast.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 720 PM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025
VFR conditions expected with increasing low clouds with bases
generally 4-5 kft after 07z at SSI, sliding down the coast through
14z with increasing NNE winds. Best potential for shallow ground
fog will be VQQ where TEMPO MVFR was maintained. ENE winds
increase with gusts near 20 kts through mid-morning Wednesday as
low clouds becoming SCT into the afternoon.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 200 PM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025
Current forecast generally on track with increased winds tonight
into Wednesday and based on combination of latest forecast and
prior wave forecasts, opted to raise a small craft advisory for
the outer waters by about noon on Wednesday, mainly due to seas
rising to about 7 ft. This will continue into Thursday night but
may be able to be paired back a bit by then. Nearshore water winds
and seas are more marginal for SCA so including exercise caution
statement headline.
Rip currents: Moderate to high risk of rip currents today and
becomes more widespread high risk Wed into Thu.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 200 PM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025
Minor flooding stages are still being reached in the St Johns
River basin south of Duval county, mainly affecting parts of
Putnam and St Johns counties up to about 1.4 to 1.7 ft MHHW. Latest
guidance shows we may again reach some minor flooding levels both
in the river and along the coast as the northeast flow increases
Wed into Thu.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  85  57  82  56 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  80  64  78  63 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  83  62  81  59 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  79  67  79  65 /   0   0  10   0
GNV  85  57  84  56 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  84  61  83  60 /   0   0   0   0
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for FLZ038-132-
     137-138-333-633.
High Rip Current Risk through late Thursday night for FLZ124-125-
     138-233-333.
GA...High Rip Current Risk through late Thursday night for GAZ154-166.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Wednesday to 8 AM EDT Friday for
     AMZ470-472-474.
&&
$$

NWS JAX Office Area Forecast Discussion