Mark Center, Ohio Weather Forecast Discussion

454
FXUS63 KIWX 250518
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
118 AM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered light showers are possible through Thursday.
- Dry Friday through Wednesday.
- Highs in the 70s Thursday and Friday, then around 80 into the
  middle of next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 231 PM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025
Scattered light showers will persist near an upper low and the
base of a positively tilted trof across the Midwest into the
Ohio Valley. Rainfall amounts through Thursday should be light,
except possibly some lake enhanced showers. Delta T values
should still stay quite small (largest value around +10C), but
with lake temperatures near 70F, plenty of moisture should be
available for clouds and showers. The surface flow should
remain light except for northwest winds Thursday behind a weak
cold front. High temperatures are expected to be in the 70s
Thursday and Friday and then around 80 into the lower 80s early
next week as an upper level ridge builds into the region.
The GFS develops a massive blocking ridge across the Midwest
north into Hudson Bay into next week. 500 mb forecast heights
were close to 400 meters above normal during this time. Given
this solid blocking pattern and the potential for drought
feedback, highs into the 80s appear likely.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 112 AM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
Per infrared satellite imagery, a stratus deck is slowing moving
in from the south and patchy fog is beginning to develop across
far northeast Indiana. Overnight, expect low-end VFR ceilings
to persist with more clouds overhead. Much like last night,
patchy dense fog may develop across the area although it will be
transient in nature. Have kept in the TEMPO groups from 9-13Z at
both KSBN and KFWA for potential for fog to drop visibilities
down to 1 mile. IFR to potentially LIFR visibilities and
ceilings are possible this morning, although confidence is low
that fog will impact the terminals for longer than just a few
hours this morning. Fog will dissipate 1-2 hours after sunrise.
During the day, there are chances for scattered lake effect rain
showers near Lake Michigan. Showers will likely be in the
vicinity of KSBN during the morning and early afternoon hours so
have added VCSH in the TAF to accomodate that. Did not feel
confident enough to add in a PROB30 group, although that may
change with the 12Z TAF issuance. Otherwise, northwest flow
ensues later this afternoon and evening with clearing skies by
the evening hours.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Beach Hazards Statement until 7 AM CDT this morning for INZ103.
OH...None.
MI...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 AM EDT this morning for MIZ177-
     277.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for LMZ043-
     046.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Skipper
AVIATION...Johnson

NWS IWX Office Area Forecast Discussion