Marticville Pennsylvania Weather Forecast Discussion

161
FXUS61 KCTP 130751
AFDCTP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
351 AM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
* Periods of rain and drizzle for today and early tonight,
  mainly across the eastern half of the CWA
* A new high pressure area with cooler and dry weather is in
  store for the rest of the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
One lobe of a double barreled upper low is right overhead this
morning. Atlantic moisture will continue to be thrown back into
PA on the flow around the complex sfc low off the coast. This
will cause more rain for eastern and central PA. Little rain
will fall to the west of the axis of the trough (strung between
the two lobes). QPF still looking pretty paltry for the central
mountains, and only a little heavier for places east of the
Susq. Rainfall between now and midnight should only amount to
another 0.25-0.50" for the eastern half of PA. The rain and
clouds and cool/damming flow will keep the temps below normal
today over all but the NWrn 3 counties. Warren should end up 5F
above normal, while York will be about 10F cooler than normal.
Much of the CWA will be 10F colder than Sunday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
5H heights rise tonight, signaling the end of the rain. The
clouds and a little drizzle do last until close to sunrise,
though. Breaks in the clouds will work in from the west
concurrently with an erosion of the cloud deck from mixing. By
the end of the day, even the eastern counties will see a good
deal of clearing. Temps do stay mild (5-10F > normals) tonight
under the clouds. The increasing sunshine will then help us
climb back to temps seen on Sunday.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PoPs now gone from the N on Wed as the cold front moving through
Tues night and Wed MA will be devoid of moisture.
Cooler and very dry air will follow this front for the second
half of the week. The center of the large 1026 mb sfc high will
drift slowly SE from the Great Lakes to the Carolina Coast by
the end of the week.
The dryness will peak on Thursday with dewpoints only 25-35F in
the aftn. The wind could be gusty enough to create some concern
for our fire-weather sensitive partners. But, we`ll have a few
days to better examine those conditions. It will also be
dry/clear enough to cause frost/freeze conditions for the SE,
mainly on Friday morning. Then, temps rebound to 65-75F maxes on
Saturday thanks to the srly flow kicking in on the backside of
the high. Sat night will be the return of rain to the NW mtns
due to the approach of a broad storm system moving across the
middle of the CONUS.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Some adjustments to the TAFs since I came in at 1130 PM. Low
clouds and bands of showers working to the west. This trend will
continue overnight.
Earlier discussion below.
VFR conditions at all airfields will gradually deteriorate from
southeast (LNS/MDT) to northwest overnight and into Monday.
Scattered rain showers will develop during the predawn hours and
continue through the day. It will not be a washout, but brief
visibility reductions to MVFR are possible. There could be some
drizzle as well, but IFR visibilities are not likely at this
time.
As showers increase and a coastal low approaches overnight, MVFR
ceilings will overspread the region, reaching LNS, MDT, JST, and
AOO first this evening and then moving northwest overnight. BFD
may not see restrictions until after 09Z. IFR ceilings are a
most likely (>50% chance) at the four southernmost airfields
listed above and possible (>20%) at UNV and IPT. The guidance
(and our forecast) may actually be a bit too pessimistic, but
easterly flow with sufficient moisture tends to lead to
restrictions and leaning heavily on model guidance seems
prudent.
IFR should improve to MVFR at most airfields (except perhaps LNS
and MDT) Monday afternoon as the boundary layer deepens and
scattered showers continue.
Outlook...
Tue...A little less breezy as the wind switches to North and
skies begin to clear.
Wed...A chance for restrictions mainly early/north with cold
front, otherwise VFR and becoming breezy.
Thu...VFR, still breezy.
Fri...VFR.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Dangelo
NEAR TERM...Dangelo
SHORT TERM...Dangelo
LONG TERM...Lambert/Dangelo
AVIATION...Banghoff/Martin

NWS CTP Office Area Forecast Discussion