Masaryktown Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

973
FXUS62 KTBW 081855
AFDTBW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
255 PM EDT Wed Oct 8 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Hazardous marine conditions will continue into the weekend.
- Limited heat risk with warm and humid conditions through
   Friday.
- Drier and slightly cooler conditions are expected this weekend
   into the first half of next week.
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Wed Oct 8 2025
Scattered mainly light showers are moving quickly west across
parts of the Nature Coast as well as southern interior into
southwest Florida at this time. These showers will continue to
move west and weaken as they move out into the gulf later this
afternoon and early evening followed by mostly clear to partly
cloudy skies overnight.
For Thursday the breezy east to northeast flow will persist with
some deeper moisture spreading north to around the Interstate 4
corridor. This will combine with daytime heating leading to
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms during mainly the
afternoon and early evening hours across much of the region. A
similar pattern is expected for Friday.
As we move into the weekend an area of low pressure is expected to
develop off the southeast U.S. coast and then move north along the
eastern seaboard. As this occurs the flow around system along with
high pressure well to the north will usher in some drier and
slightly cooler air into the area. A few light showers/sprinkles
will remain possible over the interior Saturday afternoon,
otherwise rain chances will become slim to none for the first half
of next week. Daytime highs will continue to climb into the 80s
during this time, but dew points are forecast to dip into the
upper 50s and 60s making it feel much more comfortable.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 255 PM EDT Wed Oct 8 2025
Isolated to scattered showers and a few thunderstorms could
potentially cause some brief MVFR/local IFR conditions at the
southwest Florida TAF sites of PGD, FMY, and RSW this afternoon
and early evening. Also, late tonight into early Thursday morning
there is a possibility of some MVFR/IFR ceilings around the Tampa
Bay and I-4 corridor. Otherwise, VFR conditions should prevail
through the TAF forecast period. East to northeast winds will
continue at around 10 knots with some higher gusts into this
evening, then diminishing to 4 to 7 knots late this evening into
early Thursday morning before increasing back to around 10 knots
with higher gusts by late Thursday morning.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Wed Oct 8 2025
Breezy winds will produce hazardous marine conditions at times
through the week and into the weekend. A moderately tight pressure
gradient will keep gusty northeast to east winds over parts of the
coastal waters at SCEC levels through Thursday with winds 15-20
knots and seas 3-5 feet. The gradient tightens with increasing
winds Thursday night into the weekend as a cold front moves
through the waters with a SCA likely being needed during this
time.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Wed Oct 8 2025
Warm temperatures and humid surface conditions will continue with
occasionaly gusty east to northeast winds. Isolated to scattered
mainly afternoon and evening showers and a few thunderstorms are
expected through Friday. A cold front is expected to move through
the region this weekend with drier conditions into early next week,
however RH values should remain above critical levels.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  75  90  74  86 /   0  20  10  30
FMY  75  89  73  87 /  10  50  30  50
GIF  73  88  73  85 /   0  20  20  40
SRQ  73  89  73  87 /   0  20  10  30
BKV  70  88  71  84 /   0  20  10  30
SPG  75  87  74  84 /   0  20  10  20
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Close
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR...Shiveley

NWS TBW Office Area Forecast Discussion