Mascot, Nebraska Weather Forecast Discussion

217
FXUS63 KGID 131954
AFDGID
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
254 PM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Rain and storm chances (chances up to around 75% late tonight
  across far western portions of the area) this afternoon
  through tonight. 20% or less chance of strong storms.
- There is a threat of severe storms Sunday afternoon through
  Sunday evening. Large hail and wind gusts up to 60 mph are the
  main concerns.
- Severe storms will again be a concern Tuesday afternoon into
  Tuesday night.
- High temperatures will mainly be in the 70s and 80s after
  today.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 252 PM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025
Today and tonight...
An upper trough extends from southern Canada to Arizona and New
Mexico with the leading edge of the trough over Nebraska and Kansas.
Winds are out of the south this afternoon with gusts potentially
getting up to 30 mph with a strengthening surface trough to the west
and north of the area. High temperatures today are expected to reach
the mid 80s to the mid 90s. Showers and thunderstorms are possible
beginning later this afternoon mainly from Dawson to Furnas County
then possibly moving as far east as Highway 281 or Highway 81 by
sunrise Sunday. While most of the strong to severe storms should
remain west of the forecast area late this afternoon through
tonight, an isolated strong storm or two remain possible (20% or
less chance). Low temperatures tonight will be in the low 60s to low
70s.
Sunday and Sunday night...
Showers and storms will continue moving eastward across south
central and central Nebraska and north central Kansas Sunday morning
into Sunday afternoon. The morning convection is not expected to be
severe. The upper trough will move further eastward on Sunday with
more upper lift moving over the area. Additional storm development
is expected Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening mainly along and
west of a line from Loup City to Kearney to Phillipsburg. CAPE and
wind shear values will be high enough to support some strong to
marginally severe storms during this time period. Wind gusts up to
60 mph and hail up to quarter size will be the main threats with
these storms. High temperatures on Sunday are expected to be in the
low 70s to mid 80s with mostly southerly winds. Low temperatures
Sunday night will be in the mid 50s to low/mid 60s.
Monday through Tuesday night...
The upper trough will lift northward on Monday with another upper
trough approaching the region from the west. Mostly southerly winds
will continue on Monday with temperatures warming up into the 80s
with mostly sunny to sunny skies. Low temperatures Monday night will
be in the lower to mid 60s. While Monday and Monday night should
remain mostly dry, there are some models indicating showers and
storms developing late Monday afternoon into the overnight hours as
the upper trough moves closer. Lift from the upper trough will
increase over the area on Tuesday. A cold front associated with the
upper trough will move towards the area on Tuesday. This front will
be the focus of thunderstorm development. CAPE values, mid-level
lapse rates, and wind shear values along and behind the front will
be sufficient to support strong to severe storms Tuesday afternoon
into Tuesday night. High temperatures on Tuesday will be in the
upper 70s to upper 80s. Low temperatures Tuesday night will be in
the mid 50s to mid 60s.
Wednesday through Friday...
An upper trough will be centered over southern Canada on Wednesday
and will extend southward over the central Plains. A surface high
will be across south central and central Nebraska and north central
Kansas with highs in the mid to upper 70s on Wednesday. Low
temperatures Wednesday night will be in the mid 50s to low 60s. High
temperatures on Thursday will be a few degrees warmer than the
previous day with similar temperatures on Friday. Low temperatures
Thursday night will be similar to the previous night. Rain and storm
chances will continue Wednesday through Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025
For KGRI/KEAR Airports:
Winds will be out of the south to southwest this afternoon with
wind gusts possibly reaching up to 30 knots. Winds will weaken
some by 00z and will become more southerly. Wind shear is
expected at KGRI from 03z to 07z and again from 10z to 13z. Wind
shear may also briefly occur at KEAR but confidence is low. Low
ceilings are expected beginning around 09z for KEAR and around
10z-12z for KGRI. Ceilings will improve some beginning around
15z or 16z. Thunderstorms are possible beginning around 09z for
KEAR and around 14z for KGRI.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Schuldt
AVIATION...Schuldt

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion