Mauk, Georgia Weather Forecast Discussion

825
FXUS62 KFFC 191045
AFDFFC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
645 AM EDT Fri Sep 19 2025
...New 12Z Aviation Discussion...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 335 AM EDT Fri Sep 19 2025
Key Messages:
- Isolated showers and thunderstorm chances across the area
    Today and Saturday.
- Warm, above normal temperatures will continue through the
    weekend.
Discussion:
Mostly clear skies with some patchy areas of fog this morning
across north and central GA. High pressure is still in place
across the region but we will see another round of isolated
showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. There is no
major feature like a frontal boundary for this convective
activity to focus on just some residual moisture from the easterly
flow and high temps in the upper 80s to 90s. Like yesterday The
highest elevations in northeast Georgia generally have the best
chances (~20%) of seeing storms, with orographic lift helping the
convective process. Any storms that develop should stay below
severe limits with instability indices staying fairly weak and the
high pressure ridge helping to cap things off.
01
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 335 AM EDT Fri Sep 19 2025
Key Messages:
- Chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase beginning
Tuesday and through the end of the period.
- Aside from brief cooling in north Georgia on Sunday and Monday,
temperatures will be above average through Thursday.
At the start of the long term period, the upper level jet will well
to the north of the area, over the north CONUS and south Canada.
Within this jet, a robust trough will dig southward into the upper
Midwest, displacing a ridge over the Great Lakes further to the
east. A large surface high pressure under the ridge will be centered
over southeast Canada on Saturday night, which will allow for
surface ridging to develop along the Appalachians. A CAD wedge will
subsequently spread into north Georgia by Sunday and persist into
Monday. The wedge is expected to contribute to somewhat cooler
temperatures with afternoon highs in the mid 80s across much of
north Georgia (with mid 70s to low 80s in the far northeast
mountains). Highs are forecast to be warmer to the south and west of
the wedge, rising into the upper 80s to low 90s each day. Low
temperatures on Sunday and Monday morning will range from the upper
50s to mid 60s. Despite the cooler air within the CAD wedge, both
high and low temperatures are expected to remain above daily normals
by about 3-8 degrees. The influence of high pressure and the
associated wedge could also serve to inhibit convection, with PoPs
ranging from 10-15% at the highest during the afternoon and early
evening hours on Sunday and Monday.
Late Monday into Tuesday, a weakening shortwave will move across the
across the middle Mississippi River Valley region towards the Mid-
Atlantic. This will serve to scour out the wedge across north
Georgia by Tuesday, and also allow for the return of isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorm north of I-20 on Tuesday
afternoon. During the middle parts of the week, guidance is
indicating the development of a cutoff low over the Great Plains. To
the east of this potential cutoff low, confidence is increasing in a
southwesterly upper level flow regime over the Southeast, which will
favor the advection of moist and warm air into the forecast area. As
a result, high temperatures will climb into the upper 80s to low 90s
and dewpoints will climb into the upper 60s to low 70s across the
majority of the area Tuesday through Thursday. As it pertains to the
low itself, guidance is still highly inconsistent with respect to
its position and movement. The operational GFS shows several upper
level waves that could cut off and interact over the Great Plains,
which compound the uncertainty in the upper level flow pattern at
midweek and underscores the potential challenge models could have in
coming into agreement on this scenario. In any case, steady moisture
advection and the overall position of the cutoff low favor steadily
increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday and
Thursday, though the coverage of precipitation and rainfall amounts
will depend on how how the cutoff low and upper level flow pattern
evolve as we get closer in time.
Tropical Storm Gabrielle is currently positioned over the south
Atlantic, about 665 miles to the east-northeast of the Northern
Leeward Islands. Gabrielle will continue to move northwest towards
Bermuda through the weekend. However, before reaching Bermuda, the
storm is forecast to be steered northward by late Sunday and back
towards the northeast on Monday as upper level troughing pushes
through the east CONUS. Thus, Gabrielle will remain far away from
the the Atlantic Coast and Georgia.
King
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 628 AM EDT Fri Sep 19 2025
Mostly clear skies this morning with increasing clouds this
afternoon. Ceilings will stay VFR through the period. We could see
some isolated areas of Haze around sunrise but only expecting
VSBYs to get down to 5 statute miles. We will also see some
isolated SHRA/TSRA this afternoon but thinking they will be
isolated enough to leave it out of the TAF. Winds are light and
variable this morning but will be mainly out of the E to SE in the
3-7kt range this afternoon and evening.
//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
Confidence high on all elements.
01
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          87  65  86  62 /  20  10  10   0
Atlanta         89  68  88  66 /  20  10  10   0
Blairsville     81  60  79  59 /  20  10  40   0
Cartersville    90  66  90  65 /  10  10  10   0
Columbus        94  68  92  67 /  20  10   0   0
Gainesville     87  65  86  64 /  20  10  20   0
Macon           89  66  89  64 /  20  10   0   0
Rome            92  65  92  65 /  10  10  10   0
Peachtree City  89  65  89  63 /  20  10  10   0
Vidalia         91  66  90  64 /  20  10   0   0
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....King
AVIATION...01

NWS FFC Office Area Forecast Discussion