294 FXUS64 KLZK 250814 AFDLZKArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 314 AM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025
...New KEY MESSAGES and DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 232 AM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025
-Shower and thunderstorm chances continue mainly for central to eastern Arkansas this afternoon
-Cooler than normal temperatures linger through the rest of this week
-Drier and calmer conditions expected this weekend as temperatures warm to above normal levels going into next week
&&
.DISCUSSION... Issued at 315 AM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025
The overall weather pattern is turning much quieter, as the main low circulation that brought multiple rounds of rain over the last few days across Arkansas is lifting north and east of the state. Some residual showery activity is remaining mostly across southeastern Missouri early this morning, but another mid-level wave swinging across the state today will promote some isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms, favoring eastern Arkansas mainly this afternoon. Temperatures this afternoon will range from the 70s and 80s across lower elevations and 60s to 70s across higher elevations of Arkansas, which is several degrees below normal.
Mid-level troughing will continue to deepen across the southeastern United States through the rest of this week, but the favorable dynamics will remain east of the state, promoting a warming and drying trend going into and through this weekend as high pressure begins to build in from the west. High pressure will persist across the region into early next week, with a persistent amplified ridge aloft remaining mostly stationary across the Midwest during this period. The longer term outlook through the middle of next week is pretty good agreement on ridging remaining anchored across the eastern half of the U.S., which would prolong generally dry and warm conditions across the state.
&&
.AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1239 AM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025
Showery activity across northern Arkansas has now shifted east of the nearby terminals, so all terminals are anticipated to be clear of any precipitation through the overnight period, although there may be some low chances that redevelopment could reach mainly the northern terminals. The main aviation impact through the overnight is going to be low ceilings and visibilities as low level moisture remains across the region. Thus, introduced various MVFR to IFR conditions with TEMPO`s of worsening conditions during the 10-14z timeframe. Conditions should then trend to VFR conditions by late morning at all terminals. Isolated to scattered convection mainly during the afternoon hours will again bring some possibilities of brief lowering of ceilings and visibilities before clearing out going into the evening hours.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 80 57 82 55 / 30 0 0 0 Camden AR 81 59 83 55 / 20 10 0 0 Harrison AR 76 54 78 54 / 10 0 0 0 Hot Springs AR 80 59 82 55 / 20 0 0 0 Little Rock AR 78 61 81 60 / 30 0 0 0 Monticello AR 82 61 84 57 / 30 10 0 0 Mount Ida AR 80 56 82 54 / 10 0 0 0 Mountain Home AR 79 55 80 54 / 10 0 0 0 Newport AR 79 58 82 57 / 30 0 0 0 Pine Bluff AR 79 59 82 55 / 20 10 0 0 Russellville AR 81 59 83 58 / 10 0 0 0 Searcy AR 80 59 83 56 / 30 0 0 0 Stuttgart AR 78 60 81 56 / 30 10 0 0
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. &&
$$
SHORT TERM...77 LONG TERM....77 AVIATION...77
NWS LZK Office Area Forecast Discussion