Maxbass, North Dakota Weather Forecast Discussion

495
FXUS63 KBIS 050232
AFDBIS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
932 PM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Breezy and unseasonably cool on Friday, with highs only in the
  50s.
- Sub-freezing temperatures possible across the western half of
  the state Friday night, and most of the state Saturday night.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 932 PM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025
While winds remain breezy to windy across the area, they have
fallen below warning and advisory criteria. Therefore, allowed
the High Wind Warning and the Wind Advisory to expire on time.
Otherwise, the forecast remains on track.
UPDATE
Issued at 643 PM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025
Very windy conditions continue, although winds have come down a
bit over the past hour or two. Still, plenty of sites are
gusting from 40 to 50 mph with a few still hitting 55 mph.
Isolated gusts to 60 mph remain possible, though the wind
threat will rapidly diminish over the next couple to few hours.
Despite rapidly diminishing winds, breezy conditions will
continue tonight through Friday. Quick moving showers remain
present as well over all but the southwest, though coverage has
decreased significantly from an hour or two ago. These will
continue to dissipate, though a few showers may continue through
the overnight hours. All in all, the ongoing forecast remains
on track.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 352 PM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025
An elongated surface low tied to a strong early-season clipper
system is quickly moving southeast from the eastern Dakotas into
western Minnesota this afternoon. Post-frontal pressure rises remain
strong within a well-mixed but shallow boundary layer. Maximum gusts
have mostly hovered around 55 to 60 mph so far during the afternoon,
and the recent expansion of the High Wind Warning is tracking well.
Scattered showers have also developed across central North Dakota,
with a few isolated thunderstorms north central. The strong winds
should gradually diminish this evening, but it will remain breezy
through the night at around 15 mph sustained. Isolated showers may
also linger across central parts of the state overnight. Forecast
lows tonight are in the upper 30s to mid 40s.
A northerly cyclonic flow remains over the region on Friday as the
departing clipper gets wrapped into a deeper downstream upper low
spinning over Ontario. The resulting mostly cloudy skies with a
persistent northwest breeze will keep afternoon high temperatures
near record cold values in the 50s. Isolated diurnally-driven
showers could develop across central parts of the state Friday
afternoon, with relatively higher probabilities south compared to
north.
Surface ridging is forecast to emerge from Saskatchewan through the
western Dakotas Friday night. This should provide a favorable setup
for strong radiational cooling. 50th percentile NBM guidance already
brings mid to lower 30s and isolated upper 20s to all of western and
parts of central North Dakota for low temperatures Friday night into
Saturday morning. A Freeze Watch has therefore been issued. Quiet
weather is expected on Saturday as surface ridging slides eastward,
but highs will remain well below normal, mostly in the upper 50s to
mid 60s. A more widespread frost/freeze potential exists across the
entire state Saturday night into Sunday morning as surface high
pressure remains in place.
A warming trend is advertised by ensembles for next week as upper
level ridging tries to build over the central CONUS. The ridge could
temporarily be dented by the passage of a couple shortwaves embedded
in northwest flow early in the week. This could theoretically bring
some low chances for showers through parts of the region, but the
probability thereof is not high enough to mention in the forecast at
this time. The upper level ridge axis could shift eastward later
next week and pivot to a positive tilt, which would bring southwest
flow aloft over the Northern Plains.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 643 PM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025
Very strong northwesterly winds continue, though should rapidly
diminish over the next few hours. That said, even in this
diminished state, they will remain breezy tonight through the
day Friday. Isolated showers continue across all but
southwestern ND. Most of these will dissipate over the next few
hours, though a few remain possible at times overnight as well.
MVFR ceilings are likely to impact all but far southwestern ND
at times this evening through Friday morning.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning
for NDZ001-002-009-010-017>021-031>034-040>044.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Telken
DISCUSSION...Hollan
AVIATION...Telken

NWS BIS Office Area Forecast Discussion