565 FXUS62 KJAX 101237 AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 837 AM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- NorEaster Conditions this Weekend. Highest Water Levels of the Fall Season Expected from Today and through the

- Weekend along the Atlantic Coast, Intracoastal Waterway, and St. Johns River Basin. Coastal Flood Warning for Moderate Tidal Flooding beginning this Morning,. Wind Advisories for the Coastal Counties through Saturday Night. Gale Warning for Atlantic Waters through Saturday Night. Destructive Beach Erosion at Area Beaches During Times of High Tide

- Heavy Downpours & Isolated TStorms along the I-95 Corridor. Localized Flooding Possible at Coastal Locations this Morning and again this Evening. Widespread 1-3 Totals for Coastal Northeast FL with Locally Higher Amounts Possible

.UPDATE... Issued at 837 AM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025

No major updates needed on the forecast or with the current coastal and marine hazards. Overnight and early this morning, coastal areas saw peak winds near 40-45 mph, with the highest gust at Mayport seeing 51 mph overnight. Showers will continue to move onshore, with heaviest totals over St. Johns county so far this morning.

.NEAR TERM... Issued at 155 AM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025

An area of low pressure will develop along a frontal boundary off the central east coast of FL. With the area of low pressure to the south and high pressure to our north, locally a tight pressure gradient will bring elevated winds over the local waters and coastal locations of SE GA and NE FL, with winds from 25 to 35 mph and gusts from 40 to 45 mph possible along the coast. Northeasterly onshore flow will continue to bring coastal showers and storms through Tonight. There could be periods of heavy downpours as the showers and storms make their way towards the I-95 corridor in NE FL. With lingering high tides and the strong onshore flow, we will likely continue to see moderate coastal flooding along the Atlantic coast and within the St. Johns River Basin. By the evening hours, the area of low pressure will begin to shift towards the north-northeast along the local waters towards the Carolinas as high pressure to the north shifts east towards the Atlantic, with elevated winds and coastal hazards continuing into the weekend.

Temperature highs will be in the 70s area-wide as cloud cover and the advection of cooler air into the region will keep most locations from reaching into the 80s, aside from a few locations along north central FL. Lows will be in the 60s area-wide with a gradient of lower temperatures in SE GA to higher temperatures in north central FL.

.SHORT TERM... (Saturday through Sunday night) Issued at 155 AM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025

True nor`easter developing by Saturday morning, compounding the coastal impacts through Saturday. Latest guidance tightens gradients and increases winds across the coastal areas Saturday as a surface low develops off the central FL coast beneath an upper cutoff during the morning and quickly deepens as it moves northward toward the Carolinas. This acceleration to the winds, with gusts up to 45 mph, along the coast where a Wind Advisory is in effect through early Sunday morning.

Initially convergent banding withing the northeasterly flow will direct showers into the coast and toward Hwy 301 through Saturday morning. As the aforementioned surface low shifts northward, a trailing cold front will sweep through turning winds northerly then northwesterly through Sunday.

By Sunday high pressure to the west will weaken and gradients will begin to relax. Despite weakening winds and a slight shift to an offshore flow, rough waters at area beaches are likely to linger along with the threat of rip currents through Sunday. Similarly, northerly winds will likely keep "trapped" tidal water within the St Johns River for a few additional cycles, especially at locations from downtown Jacksonville southward (more on this in the HYDRO section below). This may require an extension to the headlines through Sunday, particularly the coastal flood and surf-related hazards.

Cloud cover and breezy winds inland (windy at the coast) will keep temperatures below 80 degrees areawide. Temperatures will begin to trend down Sunday behind the front with skies clearing and winds trending light. This will set up a night with overnight lows Sunday dipping into the mid/upper 50s from the Suwannee Valley northward into inland southeaster GA while the rest of the area reads low temps in the low 60s and mid 60s at the coast.

.LONG TERM... (Monday through Thursday) Issued at 155 AM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025

Broad upper ridging building from the west out of the Gulf will act as a shield from additional troughs from reaching our area through next week. Surface ridging will build from the northwest during the midweek portion of the forecast, keeping winds northeasterly but much lighter than the ongoing Nor`easter event. That northeast winds should last long with high pressure gradually settling over the area to end the week. Overall a much more benign period of weather is expected with no significant tropical developments expected during this period. Seasonal temperatures reading near typical climo for mid October is likely with the forecasted pattern.

.AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 714 AM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025

MVFR conditions, gusty northeasterly winds, and showers moving onshore will persist during the TAF period. There will be periods of heavier rainfall producing low visibility and lower (IFR) ceilings throughout the day, PROB30s in place.

.MARINE... Issued at 155 AM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025

Elevated northeast winds will continue over the local waters. Showers and embedded storms will increase in coverage through Today. A Gale Warning remains be in effect through Saturday night as northeast winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt will be possible. An area of low pressure along the Gulf Stream waters adjacent to our region will gradually strengthen as it moves northward towards the Carolinas this weekend. Strong north- northeasterly winds and very rough surf will create dangerous conditions throughout our local waters through Today and into early Sunday. Northerly winds will gradually subside late this weekend into early next week, with elevated seas also likely slow to subside across our local waters.

Rip current: High risk of rip currents and high surf advisory conditions will continue through the upcoming weekend as surf/breakers build into the 7-10 ft range Today and into the weekend. Severe beach erosion is expected during times of high tide through the upcoming weekend.

.HYDROLOGY... Issued at 155 AM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025

The Coastal Flood Advisory will remain in place into the early morning hours. With the late morning high tide cycle Today, a Coastal Flood Warning will replace the Coastal Flood Advisory and be in effect through Saturday Night as onshore winds remain elevated. We will elevate if the Coastal Flood Warning will be extended based off of wind observations and the evolution of the area of low pressure as it tracks over the offshore waters this weekend.

We expect Moderate Coastal/Tidal flooding values of close to 3 ft MHHW for NE FL/SE GA beachfront locations (highest since Hurricane Nicole in November 2022) and into the 2.0 to 2.5 ft MHHW range on the St. Johns River Basin (highest since Hurricane Milton from last October). The strong onshore flow will continue to bring in coastal showers through Today, with any heavy rainfall that falls into the St. Johns River Basin during this event likely will help to keep lingering tidal flooding well into next week for the St. Johns River Basin. The Atlantic beachfront locations should fall back closer to astronomical tidal levels by early next week as the wind flow becomes more offshore.

Strong onshore winds, elevated tide levels, and pounding surf, featuring breakers of 7-9 feet along the northeast FL beaches, will bring the potential for destructive beach erosion all along the Atlantic coast beginning Today and through the weekend.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 71 60 76 59 / 40 30 10 10 SSI 75 65 74 63 / 70 70 30 20 JAX 75 65 77 62 / 80 70 40 20 SGJ 78 69 77 64 / 90 70 50 20 GNV 77 64 78 60 / 40 40 20 10 OCF 79 67 77 62 / 50 30 20 10

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for FLZ038- 124-125-132-137-138-225-233-325-333-633.

Wind Advisory until 5 AM EDT Sunday for FLZ038-124-125-138-233- 325-333-433-533-633.

Coastal Flood Warning until 6 AM EDT Sunday for FLZ038-124-125- 132-137-138-225-233-325-333-633.

High Rip Current Risk through late Saturday night for FLZ124-125- 138-233-333.

High Surf Advisory until 6 AM EDT Sunday for FLZ124-125-138-233- 333.

GA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for GAZ154- 166.

Wind Advisory until 5 AM EDT Sunday for GAZ154-166.

Coastal Flood Warning until 6 AM EDT Sunday for GAZ154-166.

High Rip Current Risk through late Saturday night for GAZ154-166.

High Surf Advisory until 6 AM EDT Sunday for GAZ154-166.

AM...Gale Warning until 6 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ450-452-454-470-472- 474.

NWS JAX Office Area Forecast Discussion