Mayflower, Arkansas Weather Forecast Discussion

165
FXUS64 KLZK 171039 AAA
AFDLZK
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
539 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 154 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
-Chances for showers and thunderstorms continue nearly every day
into the middle of next week
-Best chances for seeing more scattered/numerous showers/storms will
come Fri
-Hot/humid conditions will continue into Thu...then somewhat cooler
conditions are expected late this week into the middle of next week
-Organized severe weather is not expected at this time...but an
isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible each day
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 154 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
Not much change in the forecast from previous days. Continue to see
potential for diurnally driven convection each day through Thu
afternoon...with slight to low end chance POPs forecast. Isolated to
widely scattered convection will be possible each afternoon...with
the overall threat for seeing SVR Wx remaining low. However...like
in previous days...there will be some potential for an isolated
strong to briefly SVR storm due to high afternoon CAPE. Locally
heavy rainfall...gusty winds...and hail will be the primary threats
with the strongest activity.
Highs through Thu will remain well above normal in the 80s and 90s.
However...an upper shortwave will pass ESE over the NRN portions of
AR on Fri into Fri night...bringing better chances for more
scattered convection on Fri into Fri night. Given this upper
shortwave will weaken as it approaches...will continue with the
potential for organized strong to SVR Wx to remain low. Again...this
doesn`t rule out any isolated strong/SVR convection however.
Flow aloft will become more persistently NW by the weekend into
early next week. Additional upper waves will pass over the region in
this NW flow aloft...with some continued POPs forecast through the
end of the forecast. In fact...there are some indications a closed
upper low may move into the region by the middle of next week. This
will mostly likely keep temps cooler than in the past week...at
least a bit closer to normal for mid/late Sep. Details on best
precip chances will be a bit more uncertain however...given timing
differences of the upper low moving into the region...and what upper
waves may pass overhead and when.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 536 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
Other than some fog at ADF...most sites remain VFR this morning.
Expect this trend to continue for most areas. Some afternoon
isolated convection will again be possible today into this
evening...with coverage decreasing tonight.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     95  66  95  65 /  20  20  10  10
Camden AR         94  66  93  65 /  20  20  10   0
Harrison AR       90  65  88  64 /  30  30  30  40
Hot Springs AR    93  67  93  67 /  20  20  20  10
Little Rock   AR  92  68  93  69 /  20  20  20  10
Monticello AR     95  69  95  68 /  20  20  10   0
Mount Ida AR      92  66  92  66 /  20  20  30  20
Mountain Home AR  94  65  92  65 /  20  20  20  20
Newport AR        95  67  95  67 /  10  10  10  10
Pine Bluff AR     95  67  93  67 /  20  20  10   0
Russellville AR   93  67  93  68 /  20  20  20  20
Searcy AR         94  66  94  67 /  20  20  20  10
Stuttgart AR      94  68  93  68 /  20  20  10   0
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...62
AVIATION...62

NWS LZK Office Area Forecast Discussion