Mayking, Kentucky Weather Forecast Discussion

378
FXUS63 KJKL 050535
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
135 AM EDT Fri Sep 5 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Another round of showers and thunderstorms is expected to impact
  the area mainly Friday evening into the overnight.
- A few of the storms Friday evening into the early overnight may
  be strong to severe; damaging wind gusts and large hail are the
  primary concerns, but can`t rule out a spin-up tornado.
- Widespread rainfall totals between 1.0 to 1.75 inches are
  possible through late Saturday night, but locally higher totals
  are possible wherever stronger convection occurs.
- Below normal temperatures and drier weather will return this
  weekend.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 933 PM EDT THU SEP 4 2025
Convective activity quickly diminished with the loss of daytime
heating, and will thus remove any mention of thunder from the
forecast for the rest of the night. Lowered PoPs in the southeast
below 15 percent beginning at 02z. Areas of low clouds and some
fog can be expected through the overnight with the region lying in
the warm sector ahead of a stalled cold front.
UPDATE Issued at 710 PM EDT THU SEP 4 2025
Showers and thunderstorms will continue moving generally to the
east across the far southern and southeastern parts of the
forecast area, but also cannot rule out stray development to the
north for the next few hours. Adjusted PoPs generally downward a
bit with the early evening update.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 427 PM EDT THU SEP 4 2025
Much-needed rain fell across eastern Kentucky today, though the
main area of widespread rainfall has since shifted southeast of
the area, leaving behind variable cloud cover. Radar estimates
show a clear north-to-south gradient in what fell, with 0.2 to
0.75 inches north of the Mountain Parkway, increasing to 0.5 to
1.5 inches for most locations further south. Temperatures remain
cool in the mid-60s to around 70 degrees, except in the mid 70s
near Lake Cumberland. The synoptic setup features a stalling cold
front to our northwest, from roughly Cynthiana to near Bowling
Green, its advance halted by weakening upper-level forcing. This
front extends southward from a strong, nearly vertically stacked
low north of Lake Superior. Further upstream, a potent shortwave
trough accompanied by another strong cold front is dropping out of
Canada into the Dakotas and will become the main driver of our
weather on Friday/Friday Night.
Through the remainder of the daylight hours, scattered showers
and a few thunderstorms can be expected to develop as the front
drifts closer, diminishing from northwest to southeast this
evening with the loss of daytime heating. Overnight, a
strengthening low-level southwesterly flow will bring renewed
warmth and moisture into the region. While guidance is uncertain
on the extent of low clouds, the strength of this flow (10 to 20
kts just off the surface) favors the development of a low stratus
deck over widespread fog. This sets the stage for Friday, when
this warm air advection will translate to the surface. At 850 mb,
temperatures climbing into the 16-18C range will support
widespread highs in the mid to upper 80s, while PWATs climb to
between 1.5 and 1.8 inches. A weak cap should keep a lid on this
increasingly unstable airmass for most of the day, allowing MLCAPE
to build to 1,500-3,000 J/kg. The trigger for releasing this
instability will arrive late in the afternoon, as subsiding
heights ahead of the strong cold front cause the cap to weaken.
Sufficient shear will favor initial storm development as discrete
supercells capable of producing large hail and damaging winds. A
further notable concern is the potential for this highly unstable
airmass to coincide with a strengthening low-level jet (exceeding
30 knots at 850 mb) Friday evening. If this jet develops before
convection becomes widespread, the resulting enlarged and looping
hodographs create a favorable environment for tornadic supercells,
with the greatest concern currently north of the Hal Rogers
Parkway/KY-80 corridor. Later in the evening, storms are expected
to become widespread, producing torrential downpours at times. A
general 0.5 to 1.5 inches of rain is anticipated, though localized
totals over 2 inches are possible.
In sensible terms, lingering showers and thunderstorms this
evening will wane after sunset, followed by a mild night with a
mix of partial clearing and areas of low stratus or fog. A rogue
shower cannot be ruled out as well, but that would be very
isolated. Low temperatures will be in the mid-50s to around 60.
For Friday, mostly sunny skies will help temperatures climb into
the mid to upper 80s. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to
develop over western counties by late afternoon, increasing in
coverage and intensity through the evening and overnight. Some of
these initial storms could be severe, with damaging winds, large
hail, and isolated tornadoes all possible. It will be a very wet
night with low temperatures falling back into the mid-50s to lower
60s.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 217 PM EDT THU SEP 4 2025
Lingering showers and thunderstorms will continue to impact
eastern Kentucky on Saturday as a slow-moving cold front
approaches the region. Eventual FROPA is slated for Saturday
afternoon, with high pressure building behind the boundary. Much
cooler temperatures will be in place on Sunday with afternoon
highs in the low to mid 70s.
A slight warming trend will be evident next week as an upper level
ridge forms over the Central Plains. Easterly surface flow will
advect slightly warmer temperatures with highs climbing to the
upper 70s and lower 80s by Tuesday. Dry and warm conditions will
persist through the remainder of the week as high pressure
continues.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
ISSUED AT 134 AM EDT FRI SEP 5 2025
Conditions are beginning to deteriorate with this TAF issuance as
widespread river valley fog is developing and impacting local
terminals. KSME, KLOZ and KSYM are currently MVFR with KJKL and
KSJS being VFR. Confidence is high that all terminals will fall
into categorical MVFR to IFR through sunrise. Once fog burns off,
TAFs will improve to VFR and remain VFR through the afternoon. A
cold front will bring increasing shower and thunderstorm chances
later this afternoon. Terminals will fall into a combination of
IFR to MVFR as these showers and storms move through the area.
Winds are forecast to be light and variable through the period but
convection will bring gusty and erratic winds.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CMC
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...SCHLESSIGER
AVIATION...VORST

NWS JKL Office Area Forecast Discussion