Mc Clelland Post Office, Iowa Weather Forecast Discussion

848
FXUS63 KOAX 010315
AFDOAX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1015 PM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Above normal temperatures will continue into the weekend, with
  highs generally in the 80s.
- Dry weather is expected to persist throughout the remainder of
  the work week.
- A pattern change is expected this weekend, bringing the return
  of at least low (10-30%) precipitation chances and gradually
  cooling temperatures.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 222 PM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025
This afternoon, upper-level high pressure is centered off to our
east across the Upper Mississippi River Valley. To our southwest, a
weak shortwave disturbance is lifting north through the central
Great Plains. This disturbance is resulting in abundant clouds over
much of our area and even a few drops of rain. That said, morning
soundings showed a substantial layer of dry air in the lower-levels.
This is preventing most, if not all, rain from reaching the ground
this afternoon. That being said, a few drops on your windshield is
not impossible. Otherwise, the high pressure to our east is helping
to keep temperatures above normal, mainly in the 80s. Tonight,
temperatures cool into the upper 50s and lower 60s. With a continued
gradual moistening of the lower-levels with the approaching
shortwave, a few light showers or a brief thunderstorm is possible
during the morning hours. This activity should remain confined to
northeast Nebraska and cause little impacts. Warmer and drier
weather is the story for the remainder of the week. Each day,
ridging dominates our weather pattern. While the current upper-level
high pressure weakens and moves off to the east, a new ridge builds
over the Great Plains in its place. This maintains the dry weather
pattern and above normal temperatures in the 80s over the area.
Temperatures may even flirt with 90 as the pattern continues to
amplify ahead of our next weather system on Friday and perhaps
Saturday.
Late Saturday into Sunday is when our next weather system and
expected weather change is forecast to arrive. Ensemble guidance
continues to show a digging trough over the Intermountain West late
this week into this weekend. This system is expected to gradually
lift northward as it continues to shift east. This is anticipated to
bring the return of at least low (10-30%) precipitation chances to
the area with cooling temperatures that are closer to normal.
Though, the exact evolution remains uncertain at this time,
confidence in more seasonal weather is increasing.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1015 PM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025
VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF cycle. A few showers
and isolated storms may develop over northeast Nebraska after
12z, but current thinking is that these should stay northwest of
KOFK. Winds will be breezy from the south southeast with gusts
around 20-25 kts after 16z, subsiding after 00z.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Chehak
AVIATION...Castillo

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion