Mc Donald, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

124
FXUS63 KGLD 062309
AFDGLD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
509 PM MDT Sat Sep 6 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dense fog may develop over a limited portion of the area
  Sunday morning (a few hours on either side of sunrise),
  mainly along/west of Highway 27.
- Mild weekend forecast with near average temperatures around 80
  and winds below 20 mph.
- Warmer temperatures and a more active pattern are forecast to
  return next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 109 PM MDT Sat Sep 6 2025
Today, we`re looking at partly cloudy conditions thanks to an
850 mb high over eastern Kansas funneling some more moisture
into the region. The southerly winds will mix down to the
surface and help get our temperatures into the mid to upper 70s.
Around 0Z, there is a 5% chance a 500 mb shortwave trough moves
across the area, forcing some showers or light storms to form.
No severe impact are expected from this low chance of
precipitation.
Fog and stratus looks to return Saturday night to parts of the
area. Areas generally along and west of KS 27 will see the
higher likelihood of dense fog. Lows will generally be in the
low to mid 50s.
Tomorrow, a 500 mb shortwave trough will ripple across the
ridge over the Rockies. Vorticity from the NAM and GFS starts up
around 15 over the western portions of the CWA. This could
(10%) lead to some drizzle in our Colorado counties that have
fog or stratus. As the day progresses, the shortwave will move
more solidly into the CWA and create better chances at showers
and storms. In the afternoon, starting around 18Z, PoPs will
increase to around 20-25, mainly focused on the western portion
of the CWA. However, CAMs are showing a scattered grouping of
storms firing off around Sherman county around 20Z. As far as
severe weather goes, we cannot rule out some 1 inch hail, but
with less than 40 kts being found in the column, severe winds
look unlikely. Hail would reasonably only occur if one storm is
able to dominate and not compete with other updrafts. This puts
the confidence of severe weather less than 10%. Overnight, the
vorticity will become more broad, allowing additional
precipitation to occur throughout the area the overnight hours.
PoPs will be in the 15-25 range for areas along and north of
I-70. Scattered showers may linger into Monday morning.
Temperatures tomorrow will warm into the low to mid 80s. With
the 850 mb LLJ sitting around 20-30 kts from the south, we
expect to see southerly gusts around 20-30 kts. If the high to
the east remains closer than models are currently showing, a
couple 35-40 kts gusts may occur, but confidence for that is
less than 15%. Overnight temperatures look to cool to around 60.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 109 PM MDT Sat Sep 6 2025
The long-term will see a pattern that we saw a lot of this
summer. A ridge will be set up over the Four Corners and Great
Basin region as a low over the Great Lakes slowly pushes off to
the east and another low moves over the northwestern CONUS. The
ridge and northwesterly flow will dominate the CWA into Tuesday.
The speed of the northwestern low will determine when the
northwesterly flow will break apart.
Tuesday, as the northwestern low breaks down the ridge, the low
looks to slow to a crawl over the northern Rockies and have
potentially Fujiwara if the center of the low splits. This will
be the pattern that dominates the long-term: 500 mb high shifts
its axis over the central Great Plains and the slow moving 500
mb low over the Northern Rockies, with the 850 mb level seeing a
high pressure system over the mid and southern Mississippi
River Valley regions as weak lows eject off the Northern
Rockies. This will allow a southerly LLJ to funnel mid and low-
level moisture into the CWA as well as warmer temperatures. Due
to the heat, moisture, and weak cold fronts, there will be a
nearly daily 20-30% chance of showers and weak storms across the
area. Currently, no guidance is showing a strong cold front
moving through the area, as the upper-level low remains somewhat
stationary. If a stronger low and cold front can eject off the
the Northern Rockies, all the ingredients will be in place for
severe storms. The NBM does not seem to be reflecting the
precipitation potential well in this setup. This means the PoPs
shown in the local forecasts on our web page are lower than what
forecaster confidence in precipitation is. Overall, forecaster
confidence in: daily showers and weak storms forming is 20-30%;
at least one day (Tues-Fri) seeing showers and weak storms is
70-75%; confidence in severe weather occurring at least one day
Tuesday- Friday is 10-15%.
Temperatures throughout the next week will warm into the mid to
upper 80s with a few places seeing low 90s. Low temperatures
will cool into the upper 50s to mid 60s as low level moisture
and cloud cover will keep us fairly warm.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 505 PM MDT Sat Sep 6 2025
GLD: Guidance suggests that fog and/or low stratus may develop
over portions of eastern Colorado (Kit Carson/Cheyenne counties)
Sunday morning.. and that fog/stratus could (perhaps) extend
eastward to the Goodland terminal for a brief period, mainly
~11-14Z (a few hours on either side of sunrise). Otherwise, VFR
conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period.
Southerly winds at ~8-12 knots will increase to 12-17 knots a
few hours after sunrise.. further increasing to 15-20 knots
during the afternoon, when occasional gusts to ~25 knots are
possible.
MCK: VFR conditions will rule through the TAF period. Light and
variable winds will prevail this evening.. shifting to the ESE
or SE overnight. Winds will veer to the S and increase to 12-17
knots a few hours after sunrise.. further increasing to 15-20
knots during the afternoon, when occasional gusts to ~25 knots
are possible.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...Vincent

NWS GLD Office Area Forecast Discussion