Mc Kinney Cemetery North Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

644
FXUS62 KGSP 131028
AFDGSP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
628 AM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A coastal low will slowly drift offshore through mid week as dry
high pressure builds in across the region. This will allow for a
return of above normal temperatures through Wednesday. A backdoor
cold front drops across the area Thursday bringing a brief cool down
before temperatures warm again over the weekend. The next chance for
rain may come on Sunday as a potent system swings across the country.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 625 am EDT Monday: Stacked/occluding cyclone just off the SC
coast is forecast to finally accelerate to the east later today, as
"kicker" low travels from the northern Great Plains to Hudson`s Bay.
Shield of stratocu is expected to lift/scatter as it gradually moves
east through the morning. As such, most locations should see no
worse than mostly sunny conditions by afternoon, with increasing
thickness values/rising heights allowing max temps to warm to around
5 degrees above normal across much of the area. Less cloud cover and
the relative dryness of the air mass brought about by N/NW low level
flow along with decoupling surface winds are expected to allow
tonight`s lows to settle to near normal. The better radiational
cooling conditions should also pave the way for more fog/low stratus
in the mountain valleys Tue morning.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1142 PM Sunday: The synoptic pattern will become increasingly
amplified through mid week as an upper ridge builds from the
Southern Plains through the Mississippi Valley. Farther upstream, a
potent trough will be sliding across the Great Basin and lifting
through the Rockies while a northern stream trough drops across the
Great Lakes and into New England. Rising heights across the Southern
Appalachians on the eastern flank of the upper ridge will promote
warm temperatures in the mid 70s to low 80s both Tuesday and
Wednesday. Otherwise, the forecast remains dry through the short
term.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1202 AM Monday: By Thursday, sprawling surface high pressure
dropping across the Great Lakes and into New England will send a
backdoor cold front through the area. This will in turn result in
temperatures falling back to or just below seasonal averages
Thursday and Friday. Heading into the weekend, the upper trough axis
is progged to traverse the Appalachians with a slight warmup on
Saturday. The forecast becomes much more interesting on Sunday as the
first in a series of potent troughs ejects across the Northern
Plains and across the Midwest into the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley.
Forecast confidence quickly wanes, however, as considerable
differences in timing, location and evolution of the wave are
apparent across the suite of guidance. Rain chances may eventually
return to the area, so will leave the forecast in line with the
national model blend for now until there`s better agreement.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Lingering MVFR cigs at KCLT are expected
to lift to VFR by 12Z...or shortly thereafter. Meanwhile, fog/low
stratus has developed in the mountain valleys W=>N of KAVL, and
is not expected to impact the TAF sites this morning. Otherwise,
drier air filtering into the Terminal Forecast Area on developing
NNW winds will result in clouds lifting/scattering at most
sites by around noon, with FEW/SCT cumulus of 050-060 likely
continuing into the afternoon before SKC conditions develop.
restrictions will be in the valleys to the W and N of KAVL. NNE
winds are expected to gradually turn toward NNW by afternoon,
with speeds generally expected to be 5-8 kts during the daylight
hours, except for 10-12 kts at KCLT this morning. Speeds should
drop off to around 5 kts at most sites this evening. Conditions
should be favorable for mountain valley fog/low stratus to be a
little more widespread early Tuesday. Having said that,
confidence is low on timing/ magnitude of any restrictions at
KAVL, mainly due to the expectation that an up-valley wind may
prevent the necessary cooling. For now, 5SM/FEW005 is advertised
at KAVL after 10Z.
Outlook: VFR conditions are expected to persist thru the week,
except for the continued potential for mountain valley low stratus
and/or fog each morning.
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TW
NEAR TERM...JDL
SHORT TERM...TW
LONG TERM...TW
AVIATION...JDL

NWS GSP Office Area Forecast Discussion