Meadow Park California Weather Forecast Discussion

976
FXUS66 KSGX 141655
AFDSGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
955 AM PDT Tue Oct 14 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system from the north will bring cool temperatures,
gusty southerly winds and widespread precipitation to Southern
California today. Clearing tonight leading into quiet weather and
gradual warming through the weekend. Another low pressure system
from the north will bring cooling early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
The upper low can be seen moving down the California coastline
this morning on satellite. Showers with moderate rainfall rates
have already spread into the northwestern portions of the coastal
basin and mountains. The cold front along with the heaviest
precipitation is pushing through Los Angeles currently. High
temperatures will range from 15 to 25 degrees below average for
inland areas today.
As the front approaches this morning, gusty southerly winds
associated with the LLJ will continue to ramp up for all areas.
Widespread 25-35 mph gusts through the coastal basin with locally
higher gusts in the mountains and deserts. Gusts locally to 50
mph for the High Desert. The main band of precipitaiton will push
across the area today beginning shortly for northwestern parts of
the area including OC and the western Inland Empire and pushing
south and east through the day. Moderate to locally heavy
rainfall rates expected for the coast to the mountains. Orange
County, western Inland Empire and surrounding coastal slopes are
particularly at risk for isolated rainfall rates 0.5-0.8" per
hour. Elsewhere, rainfall rates 0.3-0.6" per hour locally from the
coast to the mountains. A few embedded thunderstorms are
possible, mainly north of San Diego County. Strong low level shear
will allow for a marginal severe wind risk with any storms that
develop in Orange County.
Total rainfall will range from 2-4 inches along the coastal
slopes of the San Bernardino County Mountains, to less than a
tenth of an inch for the lower deserts. 0.75-1.5" for most of the
coastal basin except lower amounts ranging 0.25-0.75" for the
eastern Inland Empire and the southern half of San Diego County.
Accumulating snow for elevations above 7500 feet. No impacts
expected at mountain resort levels.
Scattered post-frontal showers developing this evening across the
coastal basin, but any additional rainfall should remain light
with minimal impacts. Clearing expected from west to east across
the area tonight as the low pressure system exits the region.
Much more benign weather will follow as a weak ridge builds into
the southwestern US leading to dry conditions and gradual warming
through the weekend. A surface high will move over intermountain
west by Wednesday and should create enough of an offshore pressure
gradient to prevent marine layer cloud development for a few
days.
By early next week another upper level trough will swing across
the western US. This should bring temperatures back to below
average, but impacts beyond that are uncertain at this time.
&&
.AVIATION...
141615Z...BKN-OVC clouds continue to lower from north to south this
morning with bases 2500-3500 ft MSL. -RA over northern areas will
continue to push southward throughout the day. VCTY KSAN/KCRQ bases
near 5,000 ft will lower after 18Z. SCT -SHRA will become steadier
RA/+RA along with an iso TSRA from north to south late morning
through the afternoon. Vis reduced 2-5SM in +RA. -SHRA becoming more
intermittent 00-10Z, drying out there after with scattering clouds.
S/SW winds along the coast will gust up to 30 kts until 23Z. Gusts
30-40 kts in the mountains and desert slopes until 06Z Wed. MOD
UDDFS and local LLWS or rotors in lee of mountains such as vcnty
KPSP. Local vis reduced 3-5SM in BLDU in deserts through 22Z.
&&
.MARINE...
Strong southerly winds will continue this morning in advance of a
front that will move west to east through the coastal waters from
late morning through afternoon and create conditions hazardous for
small craft (check the Small Craft Advisory for details). Weaker
westerly winds will follow behind the front. Additionally, there is
a slight chance of thunderstorms today. Any thunderstorm could
produce briefly gusty, erratic winds, choppy seas, and lightning. No
additional hazardous marine conditions are expected this evening
through Saturday.
&&
.BEACHES...
There is a slight chance of thunderstorms and lightning today, most
likely in the afternoon. Surf today will be 3 to 5 feet, with
occasional sets to 6 feet, highest in San Diego County. This will
produce a high rip current risk.
&&
.SKYWARN...
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for San Diego County
     Coastal Areas-San Diego County Valleys.
Wind Advisory until noon PDT today for Apple and Lucerne Valleys-
     Orange County Coastal Areas-Orange County Inland Areas-San
     Bernardino County Mountains-San Bernardino and Riverside
     County Valleys-The Inland Empire.
Flash Flood Watch until 5 PM PDT this afternoon for Orange
     County Inland Areas-San Bernardino County Mountains-Santa
     Ana Mountains and Foothills.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT this afternoon for Coastal
     Waters from San Mateo Point to the Mexican Border and out
     to 10 nm-Waters from San Mateo Point to the Mexican Border
     Extending 10 to 60 nm out including San Clemente Island.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...KW
AVIATION/MARINE...APR

NWS SGX Office Area Forecast Discussion