Mears, Virginia Weather Forecast Discussion

888
FXUS61 KAKQ 160541
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
141 AM EDT Tue Sep 16 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure in New England remains largely in place through
midweek. A coastal low approaches the region this evening,
lingering through midweek. This low will bring widespread rain,
cooler temperatures, and breezy conditions across the area through
Wednesday. A brief warmup is expected by late week before a
return to slightly below normal temperatures by early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 350 PM EDT Monday...
Key Messages:
- Deepening coastal low pressure lifts north and northwest tonight,
  bringing heavy rainfall and strong winds.
- A Flood Watch has been issued for south and southeast portions
  of the area from this afternoon through late Tuesday night.
  Locally heavy rain continues Tuesday, especially across
  southern and southeastern portions of the area where storm
  total rainfall of 2- 4"+ is possible.
- The Wind Advisory has been expanded northward to include the
  VA Eastern Shore and portions of the peninsulas. Breezy NE
  winds with gusts up to 25-30 mph inland and 35-45 mph along
  the bay southern bay and Atlantic coast continue Tuesday.
Afternoon analysis shows deepening low pressure off the NC coast
with surface high pressure remaining anchored over eastern Canada
into New England. Aloft, and upper low is over the central
Carolinas. The latest guidance continues to show the coastal low
lifting N and then NW tonight, around the eastern periphery of the
upper low. The surface low will slowly strengthen or maintain its
intensity as long as it is displaced from the upper low. The latest
models show the two lows becoming vertically-stacked by late Tuesday
morning or Tuesday afternoon with slow weakening expected
thereafter.
Radar and satellite imagery have been impressive so far today,
showing robust supercells over the Gulf Stream north and northwest
of the surface low. Rainfall spreads N and NW late this afternoon
into tonight. Moderate to heavy rain is expected tonight as the fgen
on the north side of the low intensifies. Expect rainfall totals
through tonight of generally 1-2" across NE NC, 0.5-1.5" across SE
VA, and 017-030>032-102.
     High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ102.
     Wind Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for NCZ102.
VA...High Surf Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for VAZ099-100.
     Flood Watch through late tonight for VAZ079>082-087>090-092-
     093-095>098-523>525.
     High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for VAZ098.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for VAZ075>078-
     085-521-522.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for VAZ083-
     084-086-518-520-523.
     Wind Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for VAZ084-086-099-
     100-523-525.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for
     VAZ089-090-093-096-524-525.
     Coastal Flood Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 2 AM EDT
     Wednesday for VAZ089-090-093-096-524-525.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for
     VAZ095-097-098.
     Wind Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for VAZ095-098.
     Coastal Flood Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 11 PM EDT
     this evening for VAZ095-097-098.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ630-631-650-
     652.
     Gale Warning until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ632-634>638-
     654-656.
     Gale Warning until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ633-658.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RMM
NEAR TERM...RHR
SHORT TERM...RHR/RMM
LONG TERM...RHR/RMM
AVIATION...AC/KMC
MARINE...ERI/MAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...

NWS AKQ Office Area Forecast Discussion