Mechancsbrg, Pennsylvania Weather Forecast Discussion

050
FXUS61 KCTP 022324
AFDCTP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
724 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
* Temperatures will climb to well above normal Friday into early
  next week.
* Our extended dry pattern continues with no rainfall and low
  humidity expected through Monday night.
* Cooler for later next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A large high pressure will remain in control into Friday.
The airmass is quite dry, so the potential for fog is low
tonight. A few high clouds extended southward from Canada
into central PA. Light winds and nearly clear skies will make
for radiational cooling. There could be a few spots with
temperatures falling into the upper 30s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Main features to the forecast are dry aftn dewpoints/low
humidity, but just a little higher Fri vs Thu, and temps
trending above normal. Even though the dewpoints rise, expect
lows Friday night to quickly fall off after sunset.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A large upper level high will prevail, as was the case back
in September.
Earlier discussion below.
Thus mostly sunny and very warm days followed by comfortable
sleeping nights over the weekend into early next week. Highs
will climb well above the historical average for early October
(+10-15F) reaching the mid 70s to low 80s. The dry air in place
will keep min temps closer to/but still above climo. No rainfall
is expected Saturday through Monday.
Model and ensemble mean consensus finally bring some rainfall
back into the picture by the middle of next week, with a cold
frontal passage projected around next Tuesday/Wednesday. NBM/WPC
blended QPF amounts within that 24 to 48 hr period are in the
0.10 to 0.75" range from SE to NW - so certainly not a drought
buster we will take what we can get.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Other than a few high clouds extending southward from southern
Canada, expect clear skies overnight.
Dewpoints remain low, so not much chance of fog tonight or
Friday night.
The dry high pressure will linger over the eastern half of the
CONUS through the weekend, providing excellent flying
conditions.
Outlook...
Sat-Tue...VFR other than AM fog possible mainly - N valleys.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Dangelo/Martin
NEAR TERM...Dangelo/Martin
SHORT TERM...Dangelo/Martin
LONG TERM...Steinbugl/Martin
AVIATION...Martin

NWS CTP Office Area Forecast Discussion