Medford, Oregon Weather Forecast Discussion

833
FXUS66 KMFR 300347
AFDMFR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
847 PM PDT Mon Sep 29 2025
.DISCUSSION...The first of two fronts has passed through the
region this evening. Widespread wetting rainfall and gusty winds
were observed with this front. Winds generally peaked in the 25-35
mph range east of the Cascades/Shasta Valley with some locations
reaching up to 45 mph. Gusts of 15-25 mph were common west of the
Cascades with gusts up to 35 mph across the higher terrain. Many
areas west of the Cascades recieved between 0.10"-0.25", with
amounts up to 0.50" in the Cascades/Siskiyous and western Siskiyou
County. As is typical, amounts were higher along the coast with
0.50"-0.75" north of Cape Blanco and between 1"-3" along the Curry
County coast and coastal mountains. Meanwhile, areas in the
Shasta Valley and east of the Cascades recorded between
0.10"-0.25". Also notable is that the Moon Complex in northeast
Curry County, responsible for the smoky conditions in West Side
valleys over the last 48 hours, recieved between 0.75"-0.90".
Additionally, the Emigrant Fire along the Douglas/Lane County
border picked up around 0.40". This rainfall should greatly help
to hinder fire activity and significantly reduce smoke output.
Much improved air quality persists across the region this evening
and will likely do so for the next several days.
Another front will approach the West Coast tonight into Tuesday
and can currently be seen on satellite out near 140W. Before this
next system, spotty showers are likely to continue across the
area overnight, and with recent rainfall, there could be some low
clouds/fog developing both in West Side Valleys and portions of
the Klamath Basin. The next front will be similar to what passed
through the region today and looks to move onshore late tomorrow
morning, then pass through the area through the afternoon. Expect
another round of beneficial rainfall and gusty winds in the same
areas as today. There are additional Wind Advisories in place for
this, and details can be found at NPWMFR. Please see the previous
discussion below for additional details. /BR-y
&&
.MARINE....Updated 830 PM PDT Monday, September 29, 2025...Seas
remain just below advisory levels through tomorrow morning. Gusty
southerly winds continue over area waters and will increase late
tonight as a second cold front approaches. This front will bring
another round of marine showers and stronger gusty southerly
winds. A Gale Warning is in place from Tuesday morning into late
Tuesday evening across all waters.
Winds will weaken some Tuesday night, but steep to very steep seas
could continue through Thursday. The very steep seas will be found
north of Cape Blanco. North winds return Friday and strengthen this
weekend. -TAD/Hermansen
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 456 PM PDT Mon Sep 29 2025/
Updated AVIATION Discussion...
AVIATION...30/00Z TAFs...A front is passing through the region this
evening, currently just moving east of the Cascades. Ahead of this
front, gusty south to southwest winds continue with generally VFR
conditions and terrain obscurations. Moderate to heavy rainfall with
this front is resulting in periods of MVFR visibilities with low end
VFR ceilings. Behind the front, winds have eased, but widespread
terrain obscurations and generally VFR conditions prevail. Along the
coast, however, a mix of IFR/MVFR are occuring. Gradually improving
conditions are expected through this evening as clouds dissipate
from west to east. However, with clearing skies and recent rainfall,
there is the possibility of IFR/MVFR conditions developing in West
Side Valleys tonight into early Tuesday morning. East of the
Cascades, guidance shows lingering low level cloud cover in the
Klamath Basin as well as the Modoc and southern Lake Counties, and
this has been included in the Klamath Falls TAF.
Any lower conditions will quickly improve Tuesday morning, but
another quick moving front will impact the region later Tuesday
morning and afternoon. Expect another round of gusty south to
southwest winds in similar places as today, as well as the concern
for low level wind shear along the coast north of Cape Blanco,
including at North Bend. Increasing cloud cover and terrain
obscurations will return from west to east late Tuesday morning into
the afternoon as the next front is expected to move onshore around
18z Tuesday. /BR-y
PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 258 PM PDT Mon Sep 29 2025/
DISCUSSION (Today through Sunday)...
Overview:
Rainfall that has been advertised for several days is ongoing across
the area with westside areas seeing the higher amounts as predicted.
Rainfall will continue through today/tonight before a lull in
activity, but another round of rainfall is anticipated tomorrow into
Wednesday. The highest amounts will be along and near the coast, but
westside areas in generally will see light to moderate amounts as
well. Some areas along/near the coast could see amounts near 3.00"
when its all said and done Wednesday evening. Westside areas not
along and near the coast could see amounts around 0.50"-1.00" by
Wednesday. Not expected widespread flooding, but nuisance flooding
is expected on roadways which could create slippery conditions as
well as mud/rock slides in more prone areas. Light rainfall could
linger into Thursday for northwest sections of the forecast area,
but overall rainfall amounts drop off significantly after Wednesday
with dry conditions thereafter.
Further Details:
The weather today is being influence by the first wave ahead of a
broader area of cyclonic rotation currently over the Gulf of Alaska.
An associated cold front will continue to push through the region
today bringing widespread rainfall to areas mostly on the westside.
There is an Excessive Rainfall Outlook currently in effect. While
isolated flash flooding is possible, this threat is overall low and
we are expecting mostly nuisance flooding on roadways that could
create hazardous driving conditions. This is especially true for
areas that are prone to mud and rock slides. Rain on roadways in
general will create slippery roads, so extra caution should be taken
while driving through showers the next two days. This first round of
rainfall will bring the higher rainfall amounts of the two rounds
expected today and tomorrow. Probabilities for rainfall indicate
areas near and along the coast will see the higher rainfall amounts,
but the southern Oregon coast (Curry and southern Coos) will see the
highest totals overall. These areas will also have the highest
threat for nuisance flooding and potential hazardous driving
conditions.
The aforementioned area of low pressure over the Gulf of Alaska will
nudge closer to British Columbia tomorrow. However, it is progged
to stall out just off the coast, and meander here through about
Thursday before coming on shore and becoming an open wave. With this
low stalled, it will eject small disturbances over the forecast area
with rainfall continue tomorrow and tomorrow evening. Rainfall
chances will pick back up tomorrow in the afternoon along the coast,
and chances will spread west to east through the afternoon and
evening hours.
The bulk of activity will end Wednesday afternoon, but lingering
showers could produce very light rainfall amounts in the afternoon
and evening of Wednesday. Then chances significantly drop off
Thursday with overall dry conditions through the weekend.
Temperatures will also start to rebound late this week and through
the weekend with temperatures much closer to normal.
-Guerrero
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Wind Advisory from 9 AM to 11 PM PDT Tuesday for ORZ030-031.
CA...Wind Advisory from 9 AM to 11 PM PDT Tuesday for CAZ081.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Gale Warning from 5 AM to 11 PM PDT Tuesday
     for PZZ350-356-370-376.
Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM Tuesday to 5 PM PDT Wednesday
     for PZZ350-356-370-376.
Hazardous Seas Warning from 11 PM Tuesday to 5 AM PDT Wednesday
     for PZZ350-370.
&&
$$

NWS MFR Office Area Forecast Discussion