Medley, West Virginia Weather Forecast Discussion

368
FXUS61 KLWX 051927
AFDLWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
327 PM EDT Fri Sep 5 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move through the area tomorrow. High pressure
will build in behind the front and remain in place through the
early to middle portions of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A large upper low continues to circulate across the Great Lakes
and southern Canada, while an associated area of low pressure
lifts northward toward Hudson Bay. Locally, heights are on the
rise aloft and winds have turned to out of the south. Southerly
winds are advecting a warmer and slightly more humid airmass
into the region. Temperatures have climbed into the mid 80s for
most, with a few locations even reaching into the upper 80s to
near 90. Dewpoints have also crept up into the low to mid 60s.
With the height rises aloft, conditions will remain dry through
the daylight hours, with just a few fair weather cumulus clouds
around.
Conditions should remain dry through much of the night as well,
but some remnant showers or storms from the Ohio Valley may
drift toward the Allegheny Front late tonight. Elsewhere, skies
should start out mostly clear, with some higher clouds starting
to move in later during the night. Winds will remain out of the
south, which will keep temperatures up. Overnight lows will be
in the 60s for most, with lower 70s along and southeast of I-95.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A deep upper trough will remain in place across much of eastern
North America tomorrow, with the primary trough axis extending
from Hudson Bay southward through the Great Lakes and
Mississippi Valley. A shortwave/mid-level speed max will lift
northeastward through the frontside of the trough during the day
tomorrow, tracking from the Ohio Valley toward the St. Lawrence
Valley over the course of the day. Locally we`ll experience
weak height falls aloft, and also become located within the
equatorward entrance region of an unseasonably strong upper jet
streak. At the surface, the system`s cold front will track
southeastward across the area tomorrow into tomorrow evening.
This cold front will likely serve as a focus for the initiation
of storms during the afternoon.
A few leftover showers may linger in the Alleghenies into the
morning, with remnant cloud debris making it roughly to the Blue
Ridge. Locations further east should see mixed high clouds and
sunshine through the morning, allowing temperatures to climb
into the mid 80s to low 90s. The clouds debris and weak cold
advection behind the slowly advancing front will only allow
temperatures to reach into the 70s and lower to middle 80s
further west. Low-level moisture will also be on the increase to
the east of the front, with dewpoints climbing back into the
upper 60s to near 70 along and east of the Blue Ridge. By peak
heating, most guidance has the front extending from north-
central Maryland southwestward through the western DC suburbs
into the Shenandoah Valley. However, there is a bit of
uncertainty with respect to its exact positioning. Storms will
likely initiate in the vicinity of the boundary during the
early-mid afternoon hours, before spreading eastward during the
late afternoon/early evening hours.
Model soundings show around 1000-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE and around
35-50 knots of effective bulk shear. Well organized
thunderstorms are expected as a result, with both multicells
and even a few supercells possible. Damaging winds should be the
primary threat, but an instance or two of large hail can`t be
ruled out in any supercells that form. Hodographs are primarily
straight and there also isn`t much low-level shear present, so
tornadoes aren`t expected. With the strong flow in place aloft,
storms should be rather progressive. As a result, flash flooding
isn`t expected to be a major issue. However, a stray instance
of flooding can`t be ruled out if storms were to train over an
urban location. Both SPC and WPC have locations roughly to the
east of I-81 outlooked in Marginal Risks for severe
thunderstorms and flash flooding. A Slight Risk from SPC clips
far northeastern portions of Maryland.
Storms will clear southern Maryland by mid-late evening, with
just a few lingering light showers possible overnight. Winds
will shift to out of the north to northwest behind the front,
allowing cooler and drier air to filter into the region. Low
temperatures tomorrow night will range from the upper 40s in the
Alleghenies to the lower 60s along and southeast of I-95.
Upper troughing will continue to make slow eastward progress on
Sunday, with a final embedded shortwave tracking from the Ohio
Valley toward Pennsylvania by Sunday evening. A mix of sun and
clouds is expected, with more clouds toward the southeast and
more sun toward the northwest. A morning shower or two could
also be possible to the southeast of I-95. Winds will be out of
the northwest, and temperatures will be much cooler, with highs
in the 70s (60s in the mountains).
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The upcoming work week will provide a return to more autumnal-like
weather ahead with below average temperatures and cool mornings. In
the wake of a cold frontal passage over the weekend, expansive
Canadian high pressure is forecast to move in from the Great Lakes
and Ohio Valley. Expect mostly sunny skies on Monday and Tuesday
while this anticyclone is strongest. While the ridge remains
centered over the northeastern U.S., an approaching longwave trough
will strengthen a stalled frontal zone which straddles the Carolina
to southeastern U.S. coast. Some isentropic lift atop this boundary
may even squeak out a few showers over southern Maryland on
Wednesday. However, the chances do remain low at this point,
generally around 15 to 20 percent. This does introduce plenty of
cloud cover for those east of the Blue Ridge Mountains.
The amplified flow gradually tracks another reinforcing cold front
across the region on Thursday. Given very little moisture to work
with, this should prove to be a dry frontal passage. This also
allows for a return to mostly sunny skies each day to conclude the
upcoming work week.
For high temperatures, most locations can expect daily readings in
the low/mid 70s (upper 50s to low 60s across mountain locales). At
night, many periods of ample radiational cooling will draw low
temperatures into the upper 40s to mid 50s (low/mid 40s from I-81
westward). Some uptick in overnight lows are possible by mid-week
given the increased cloud cover. Additionally, the post-frontal air
mass on Thursday may yield some highs into the low 80s owing to
downsloping winds. Temperatures do cool off in the wake of this
boundary by next Friday.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions and southerly winds are expected at the terminals
through tonight. A few gusts to around 20 knots may be possible this
afternoon. Winds will turn to out of the southwest tomorrow morning.
Thunderstorms appear possible tomorrow afternoon for all TAF sites
except MRB. Any storms will move out of the area tomorrow evening as
a cold front moves through. Winds will shift to out of the north
to northwest behind the front. Northwesterly winds and VFR
conditions will continue on Sunday.
A dry pattern is in place on Monday and Tuesday owing to broad
Canadian high pressure settling over the northeastern U.S. This will
ensure VFR conditions during this pattern shift. By Wednesday, a
coastal boundary may increase clouds east of the Blue Ridge.
However, these are not likely to cause any restrictions. Wind fields
during the period largely meander between northerly and
east-northeasterly as high pressure tracks through the area.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA conditions are expected in southerly flow this afternoon
through the first half of the night. There may be a bit of a
lull where the southerly flow drops below SCA levels late
tonight through tomorrow morning, before winds potentially pick
back up in channeled southerly flow tomorrow afternoon into
tomorrow evening. Winds may potentially reach SCA levels during
that time. SMWs may also be needed tomorrow afternoon as
thunderstorms move over the waters. Winds will turn out of the
north to northwest tomorrow night behind a cold front and remain
northwesterly during the day Sunday. A few SCA gusts may be
possible in north to northwesterly flow as well.
In response to high pressure settling over the area, northerly winds
are expected on Monday before turning more east-northeasterly by
Tuesday. The combination of high pressure over the northeastern U.S.
and a frontal zone off the southeastern U.S. will increase overall
pressure gradients. Consequently, some marine winds could near Small
Craft Advisories levels on Tuesday.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Water levels likely decrease a bit today as a cold front
fizzles out, but minor flooding is still possible at a few
locations tonight as southerly flow strengthens again ahead of
the next front. This front will bring a wind shift Saturday
which will decrease water levels.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...None.
MD...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EDT Saturday for MDZ008.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ530>534-
     537-539>543.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ535-
     536-538.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KJP
NEAR TERM...KJP
SHORT TERM...KJP
LONG TERM...BRO
AVIATION...BRO/KJP
MARINE...BRO/KJP
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LWX

NWS LWX Office Area Forecast Discussion