Melbourne, Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

444
FXUS62 KMLB 222321
AFDMLB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
721 PM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 253 PM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025
- A High Risk of life-threatening rip currents continues early
  this week with long period swells from Hurricane Gabrielle.
- Increased shower and storm chances Today and Tuesday as deeper
  moisture arrives over central Florida.
- Slightly above normal high temperatures for the interior
  through Friday reaching into the lower 90s each afternoon.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 253 PM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025
Current-Tonight... Morning GOES-16 PWAT analysis showed a
moisture gradient in place across the Florida peninsula with
values ranging 2.0-2.2" across south Florida and 1.6-1.7" across
northeast Florida. Scattered showers and occasional lightning
storms have developed across portions of Okeechobee and the
Treasure Coast in vicinity of the deepest moisture across south
Florida. This activity is forecast to increase in coverage through
the afternoon (~50-60%) while coverage remains more limited
further north and in vicinity of the Orlando metro (~20-30%).
Afternoon temperatures have been observed in the upper 80s and low
90s early this afternoon, and highs are expected to remain near
to just above normal. Overnight low temperatures remain mild in
the low to mid 70s.
Long period swell (~11 sec) from distant Hurricane Gabrielle has
been observed along the east central Florida coast. Life-threatening
rip currents are expected at all area beaches, especially during
times of low tide. Nice weather can be deceiving, and entering the
surf is not advised! The High rip current threat is expected to
persist through mid week.
Models suggest the potential for fog development across north
Florida tonight, while some uncertainty exists in if fog may advect
or develop locally. Some thin cirrus could be present, but light
and variable winds combined with dew point depressions near zero
suggest a marginal chance for patchy fog across far northern
portions of the forecast area.
Tuesday... Moisture continues to advect from the south with modeled
PWATs increasing to 2.0-2.2". Weak pulses of vorticity move across
central and south Florida in southwest 500mb flow. Light and
variable winds early in the day become onshore as a weak sea breeze
develops and moves inland. Isolated to widely scattered showers and
storms are first forecast along the coast, increasing in coverage
across the interior by mid to early afternoon. A moisture gradient
in place will keep lower rain chances across Volusia and northern
Lake counties (~30-40%) while the best coverage exists south (50-
70%). Primary storm hazards include occasional to frequent lightning
strikes, convective wind gusts up to 45 mph and localized rainfall
accumulations of 1-3". High temperatures hold in the low 90s across
the interior with upper 80s to near 90 along the coast. Low
temperatures fall into the low to mid 70s.
Wednesday-Friday... Ridging sets up at the surface and aloft through
Thursday, gradually retreating Friday. Moisture lingers south of I-4
on Wednesday (PWAT ~ 1.9-2.0) before drier air modestly builds
Thursday and Friday (PWAT ~ 1.7-1.9). The best rain chances exist
near and south of Cape Canaveral and the Orlando metro on
Wednesday (~50-60%). A pattern of afternoon/ evening showers and
storms is forecast to continue Thursday and Friday, although
coverage is slightly reduced (40-50%) compared to prior days.
Sounding profiles suggest a rather limited storm environment with
poor mid-level lapse rates and poor shear. However, an occasional
stronger storm which can interact with pockets of drier air aloft
(DCAPE ~ 850-1,000 J/kg) will be capable of wind gusts up to 45
mph and frequent lightning strikes. Afternoon temperatures reach
the low to mid 90s across the interior and upper 80s to low 90s
along the coast. Low temperatures range the low to mid 70s.
Friday Night-Monday (modified previous)... A longwave trough will
move toward the southeast states late this week with some divergence
in model solutions whether the trough will be quicker and more
progressive or slow down as a closed low cuts off across Southeast.
The timing of the frontal moisture could be as early as Friday night
with the more progressive solutions arriving during the day on
Saturday. Expect a period of unsettled weather with higher
shower/storm chances for Saturday. The evolution of a closed low
near the area late this weekend should gradually lower rain chances
by Sunday as some drier air is wrapped in toward northern sections
of the area associated with the closed low.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 253 PM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025
High pressure will keep light onshore flow through mid week.
Troughing across the southeast U.S. will then increase and shift
winds out of the southwest into Thursday night. Long period swell
from distant Hurricane Gabrielle been observed across the local
waters, and hazardous boating conditions are forecast at inlets
during outgoing tide through early week. Seas build 4-5 ft nearshore
and 5-6 ft offshore tonight, slowly diminishing into Tuesday night.
Scattered showers and storms are forecast across the local waters
each day.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 720 PM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025
Lingering VCSH from VRB southward through 01Z, with dry conditions
forecast through the overnight period at all terminals. Winds
becoming light and variable to calm. Brief VIS reductions due to
fog at LEE cannot be ruled out, though confidence is too low to
include in TAF. Increasing coverage of showers and storms forecast
at all terminals, with VCSH after 16Z from TIX southward and VCTS
everywhere after 18Z, excluding DAB. TEMPOs likely needed, but too
early to determine exact timing. Winds remain out of the east-
northeast at 5 to 10 knots.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  88  74  89 /  10  40  10  40
MCO  75  92  75  93 /  10  60  10  60
MLB  76  88  76  89 /  30  60  20  50
VRB  74  90  75  90 /  30  60  20  60
LEE  74  92  74  93 /  10  50  10  50
SFB  75  91  75  92 /  10  60  10  50
ORL  76  92  76  92 /  10  60  10  60
FPR  73  90  74  90 /  30  60  20  60
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Law
AVIATION...Tollefsen

NWS MLB Office Area Forecast Discussion