Mendota, California Weather Forecast Discussion

526
FXUS66 KHNX 050414
AFDHNX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
914 PM PDT Thu Sep 4 2025
.UPDATE...
Aviation Section Updated.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Chances for thunderstorms continue along the Sierra Nevada
crest, though activity may be more limited similar to the
activity seen yesterday.
2. An Air Quality Alert was issued yesterday by the San Joaquin
Valley Air District due to the multiple fires burning across the
region. This alert will remain in effect until the fires are
extinguished.
3. While above normal temperatures will prevail today, the
expected cooling trend will come into full swing by Friday and
into the weekend with below normal temperatures for the time of
year. This trend is also expected to continue through next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
The last remaining dregs of monsoonal moisture in the region may
be enough to produce some isolated thunderstorms along the
Sierra Nevada crest this afternoon, though by Friday it will be
pushed out by the incoming trough from the Pacific. Those
chances today are 10-20 percent, mainly located in the High
Sierra north of Kern County. It is also possible given the
amount of activity seen yesterday (as in just cumulus cloud
build-ups and no thunderstorms) may happen again this afternoon
with no cells developing. This becomes more likely tomorrow as
thunderstorm chances fall below 15% and the location of those
chances is pushed east.
The trough that is pushing into the region will lead to a
prolonged cooling trend that is expected to go through at least
the next week, with the cooling beginning tomorrow. Highs are
expected to first dip below normal this weekend and they are
likely to lower further next week. By Wednesday, Valley highs
may be in the mid 80`s with the Mojave desert in the upper 80`s.
The smoke from the multiple fires across the region is causing
air quality issues, so an Air Quality Alert was issued by the
San Joaquin Valley Air District yesterday afternoon for the
entire Valley, which will remain in effect until the fires are
extinguished. The majority of the smoke continues to come out
of the Garnet Fire in Fresno County.
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z Update:
VFR conditions will prevail across the central California interior
for the next 24 hours. There is a 10-20 percent chance of
thunderstorms over the Sierra Nevada from 19Z Fri until 06Z Sat.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
None.
&&
.CERTAINTY...
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
public......EW/BSO
aviation....JPK
weather.gov/hanford

NWS HNX Office Area Forecast Discussion