Menlo, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

108
FXUS63 KGLD 220634
AFDGLD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1234 AM MDT Mon Sep 22 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Patchy fog overnight and early Monday morning from McCook to
  Norton and Hill City.
- A few strong to severe storms are possible over portions of
  the area Monday afternoon and early evening, mainly in
  northwest Kansas between 3-8 PM MDT, 4-9 PM CDT.
- Cloudy and cooler with above normal chances for rain Tuesday
  into Wednesday morning.
- Dry conditions and a warming trend will follow, on Thu-Fri.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1230 AM MDT Mon Sep 22 2025
Patchy fog is possible overnight and early Monday morning from
McCook south to Hill City. Otherwise, looking for a mostly sunny
start to the day with temperatures climbing into the mid and
upper 80s. Scattered thunderstorms will initiate around 21z
along a surface convergence boundary located roughly east to
west along the Interstate 70 corridor. HRRR is slightly further
south compared to other hi-res models and has initiation
occurring closer to Highway 40. Environment at that time will
have around 25 kts of deep layer shear and up to 1500 j/kg of
surface CAPE (HREF means), with both parameters increasing
slightly south of the boundary. Instability peaks around 00z
with a modest increase in shear to around 30 kts this evening.
Initial storms near the boundary may produce a brief landspout
or weak tornado before transitioning to several clusters of
storms this evening as synoptic scale forcing increases with an
approaching shortwave moving out of northern Colorado. May see
some embedded stronger storms in the evening with the increase
in shear, mainly south of Interstate 70 in Kansas. Large hail
and damaging winds will be the main hazards, but also seeing a
signal for heavy rain/flash flooding centered around Logan and
Gove counties and areas south this evening with 3-hr PMM showing
50% probabilities of greater than 1" and 6-hr PMM approaching
2.5" in those areas. Rain and isolated thunderstorms will
continue through the overnight hours with a gradual shift to the
northeast.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 145 PM MDT Sun Sep 21 2025
Today-Tonight: Shortwave energy over south-central Nebraska at
16 UTC (per SPC mesoanalysis 400-250 mb Pot Vort) will track E
or ESE toward the NE-IA/KS-MO border this afternoon. Subsidence
in the wake of this feature will assist in suppressing in-situ
convective development this afternoon. Current observational and
satellite trends suggest that pervasive low stratus along/east
of Highway 25 this morning may persist well into the afternoon
prior to scattering-out.. limiting insolation and hampering
diurnal destabilization over the eastern half of the Goodland
CWA, where convective inhibition / MLCIN may persist through
peak heating. In western portions of the area (e.g. eastern CO),
where sunshine is abundant, diurnal destabilization will be
tempered by a much drier airmass (850 mb dewpoints < 6C,
compared to 10-15C yesterday).. which will struggle to yield
100-250 J/kg of skinny, high-based MLCAPE at peak heating.
Ridging aloft over the 4-Corners and central Rockies will
further limit/hamper upstream diurnal convective development on
the Colorado Front Range and Palmer Divide. With the above in
mind.. convection is not anticipated in the Goodland CWA.
Monday-Monday night: Monday-Monday night: Robust shortwave
energy presently moving ashore the Pacific Northwest will track
E-ESE into western MT-WY Monday afternoon.. then stall and
evolve into a cut-off low near the WY-UT-CO border (Monday eve-
night). Guidance suggests that a loosely associated lee cyclone
developing in vicinity of the NM-CO border (Mon afternoon) will
track eastward along/near the OK-KS border Mon night. Convection
allowing guidance suggests that low-level convergence in
vicinity of an inverted surface-850 mb trough.. extending NNE
(from the developing lee cyclone near the CO-NM border) across
portions of eastern CO and western KS.. may serve as a focus for
convective development Mon afternoon. Exactly where, and to
what extent, is difficult to ascertain. Focused upper forcing
will remain well upstream of northwest KS Monday afternoon.. the
location/orientation of the inverted surface-850 mb trough may
be influenced by a variety of mesoscale environmental factors..
and forecast soundings are far from clear with regard to what
extent (or whether or not) the thermodynamic/ kinematic
environment will be supportive of organized severe weather (in
the Goodland CWA). In general, the relative greatest potential
for a severe storm (in the Goodland CWA) appears to be south and
east of Colby, KS ~21-02Z (3-8 pm MDT/4-9 pm CDT).
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 145 PM MDT Sun Sep 21 2025
Tue-Wed: Guidance indicates that a broad upper level low
anticipated to develop over the Rockies and Central Plains (Tue)
will track east toward the Mississippi River Valley (Wed).
Expect below average temperatures, above average cloud cover and
well above average chances for precipitation in the form of
widespread showers / embedded storms (Tue-Tue night).. with
precipitation ending from west-east on Wed. While severe weather
is presently not anticipated.. heavy rainfall and isolated
flash flooding are a possibility.
Thu-Sat: Long range guidance indicates that the aforementioned
upper low will cut-off and stall over the Mississippi River
Valley and/or portions of the Ohio/Tennessee River Valley late
this week.. maintaining a dry, subsident synoptic regime /upper
ridge/ over the High Plains. Expect dry conditions and a warming
trend.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1111 PM MDT Sun Sep 21 2025
Patchy fog expected to develop near KMCK by 10-11z and persist
into early Monday morning before dissipating. Scattered storms
will develop along a cold front Monday afternoon near the
Interstate 70 corridor which may impact KGLD into early Monday
evening. Less certainty with storm chances further north at KMCK
Monday evening.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...024
SHORT TERM...Vincent
LONG TERM...Vincent
AVIATION...024

NWS GLD Office Area Forecast Discussion