Menlo, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

905
FXUS63 KGLD 280646
AFDGLD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1246 AM MDT Sun Sep 28 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- There is a 10% chance for patchy dense fog this morning,
  mainly south of I-70.
- Breezy (15-30 mph) south winds may occasionally gust up to 40
  mph during the afternoon hours on both Sunday and Monday.
- There is a low (5-10%) chance for an isolated thunderstorm in
  eastern Colorado Monday evening (between sunset and midnight).
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 1244 AM MDT Sun Sep 28 2025
Current observations show broad high pressure in place across the
area with an upper low still located over the Southwestern US. A few
showers have tried to form south of the area in the mid level
moisture, but a lack of forcing should keep any from reaching the
area. For the remainder of the night, temperatures should lower into
the 50s with some patches of fog developing south of I-70 where
moisture is slightly more concentrated and where winds are trying to
be more from the east. If fog does form, it could be dense and
linger until shortly after sunrise.
For today, the upper low is forecast to begin lifting to the
northeast. As it does, it should shift some of the mid and upper
level moisture through the area, leading to a mix of clouds and
sunshine through the day. For now, it looks like enough sunshine
should be able to move through to help temperatures warm to their
peak in the mid 80s with slight warm air advection in southerly
flow. We are still expecting the southerly winds to strengthen
through the day as the advancing upper low deepens a surface low
over the High Plains to the northwest of the area, tightening the
pressure gradient. Guidance still favors winds around 15-30 mph with
gusts up to 40 mph as the height gradient near the boundary layer is
still forecast to be somewhat broad with speeds around 25-35 kts.
There is still about a 10-20% that a couple of wind gusts around 50-
60 mph occur in Eastern Colorado as the surface low first deepens
and moves near the area, but the overall lack of strong winds
through the air column makes it unlikely.
There is a also a 10% chances that a few sprinkles and maybe a
showers forms south of I-70 as the mid-level moisture moves through.
The main inhibitor is that relatively dry air is forecast to remain
in place below 700mb, which would inhibit shower longevity and if
precip would reach the ground.
This evening and into the overnight hours, the upper low is forecast
to move near the area, forcing the center of the surface low north
of the area. This should broaden the pressure gradient a bit and
help winds lower to around 10-15 mph. There could still be a few
gusts to 40 mph during the evening depending on how much the lower
atmosphere stays mixed and inhibits the inversion. A mix of clouds
and clear skies remains forecast with higher level moisture still
trying to push through. With the cloud cover and winds, temperatures
may stay in the 60s for most of the night. That being said, winds
should lighten enough and there be enough breaks in the clouds for
lows to drop into the 50s for most of the area.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 107 PM MDT Sat Sep 27 2025
Like Sunday, both Monday and Tuesday will feature seasonably
gusty (30-40 mph) south winds and above normal temperatures with
forecast highs in the low to mid 80s. The global models
continue to advertise another piece of shortwave energy lifting
into our area from the south Monday evening into early Tuesday
which is when we`ll have another 10-12% (highest west) chance
for widely scattered storms. While not as pronounced in forecast
soundings, the dry sub-cloud layer would again favor a risk for
gusty to locally severe (i.e., 58+ mph) winds with any of those
storms, and after several days of dry weather soils may be dry
enough for some blowing dust to get kicked up on the leading
edge of outflows as well. Again, confidence is low, but it`s
something we`ll have our eyes on.
The global deterministic models look a bit more mercurial in
their depiction of any weather systems that might impact us
Wednesday and beyond, as a pair of tropical cyclones - one
(depression 9, which will soon be called "Imelda") rather close
to the coast - are slated to alter the large-scale pattern in
potentially significant ways. The GFS, for example, which
yesterday portrayed 500mb heights holding steady or lowering
mid-late next week, is now (the 27.06z iteration) showing
increasing heights over our area as (1) a piece of the cut-off
low gets pulled southeastward across the Deep South by energy
emanating from Imelda and (2) the ridge in the Midwest extends
southwestward to encompass the Plains, Great Basin, and Desert
Southwest...and this is just one of a myriad of plausible
scenarios.
In general, the Low Resolution Ensemble Forecast (LREF) system
mean (which, to be fair, can wash out critical detail at times,
but at least gives a sense of the average upper level pattern)
suggests near to slightly above normal heights across the Great
Basin and High Plains, with near to below normal heights across
the Pacific Northwest and off the West Coast. The Empirical
Orthogonal Function (EOF) patterns suggest the greatest amount
of ensemble member variance (given by EOF1) can be accounted for
in the amplitude of the pattern across the nation`s mid-section
by day 7 Friday (10/3).
All of this may be superfluous, but the key thing to take away
is that both deterministic and ensemble guidance seems to be
having a more difficult than normal task at resolving our
weather pattern by the middle to latter part of next week, so
our confidence in the forecast is low and our deterministic
forecast is subject to change. Right now, forecast high
temperatures range from the upper 70s to mid 80s and
precipitation chances remain less than 15% each day through
Friday. Stay tuned for updates.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1042 PM MDT Sat Sep 27 2025
For KGLD... VFR conditions are forecast through the period,
though we are watching for fog that could develop near the
terminal and move in around 09-14Z. Overall chance is about
20%, so have left it off the TAF for now. If the fog does move
over, there is the chance that it could be dense with less than
1/2 mile visibility. Otherwise, partly cloudy skies are forecast
with winds from the south. After 15Z, the winds are forecast to
strengthen as a surface low nears the area, with speeds around
15-25 kts and gusts up to 35 kts. After 00Z, winds should lower
to around 15 kts.
For KMCK... VFR conditions are expected through the period, with
clear skies through most of the night and partly cloudy skies
during the day Sunday. Winds should strengthen to around 15 kts
as a surface low nears the area, with gusts to 25 kts. The winds
should remain from the south.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...Bumgardner
AVIATION...KAK

NWS GLD Office Area Forecast Discussion