Metcalf, Illinois Weather Forecast Discussion

495
FXUS63 KILX 111727
AFDILX
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1227 PM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- An extended period of well above normal temperatures continues
  through at least the middle of next week.
- Little to no precipitation is expected during the next 7 days,
  introducing the risk for flash drought conditions through mid
  September.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1045 AM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025
Forecast looks on track today and tonight and no updates planned
at this time. Another very warm day unfolding with above normal highs
in the mid to upper 80s (lower 80s are normal highs today in
central and SE IL). 1030 mb high pressure near southern James Bay
Canada was ridging southward into WI and ne IL and will continue
to influence central IL through at least Friday as ridge axis
slowly shifts eastward. Light east to NE winds today to shift
southerly on Friday and bringing in even warmer air. Few to
scattered cumulus clouds east of I-57 at late morning and curule
shows scattered cumulus clouds in eastern IL into this afternoon
with less cu/more sunshine west of I-57.
07
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 156 AM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025
Upper analysis this morning depicts a low spinning over Quebec with
an upper ridge axis positioned over the Plains states. At the
surface, a broad area of high pressure is centered near Hudson Bay
with ridging extending southward into central Illinois. This has
kept winds light and skies mostly clear, aside from scattered mid-
level stratus. Temperatures are fairly mild compared to recent
nights, with readings ranging from the upper 50s to low 60s.
An upper low spinning near the Pacific West Coast will push the
ridge east today with it spilling into the Great Lakes Region by
this evening. This will be the start of a weekend/early week long
omega block over the US. Temperatures today will be a few degrees
warmer than yesterday, with MaxT`s peaking into the middle to
upper 80s. Well above normal warmth will persist through at least
the middle of next week with the hottest stretch beginning Friday
as temperatures surge into the low to middle 90s. The
deterministic GFS continues to run too hot due to recent dry
conditions resulting in deeper mixing, which has driven up the
NBM`s temperatures. As previously done, blended the raw NBM with
the 50th percentile NBM to bring some of the erroneously high
values down. Temperatures remain elevated through next week,
though should come down slightly by midweek... more on that below.
Little to no precipitation is expected the next 7 days, though a few
features could bring low chance/low QPF chances this weekend and
next week. The first will be tied to an upper shortwave topping the
ridge and tracking through the Great Lakes Region Saturday into
Sunday, potentially bringing a few spotty showers to the northern
half of the state. By the early to middle portions of next week a
series of upper waves will begin to weaken the ridge, pushing it
further east. Several shortwaves will work through the main trough,
bringing several periods of showers/storms to the Plains states. If
the ridge is able to push far enough east we may be able to cash in
on some of those rain chances, though I wouldn`t count on it as
chances currently remain at or below 20%. The continued dry stretch
paired with the early Fall heat will act to worsen drought
conditions through the middle of the month.
NMA
&&
.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025
VFR conditions are forecast to continue across the central IL
terminals through 18Z/1 pm Friday compliments of nearby high
pressure ridge to our north/ne. Scattered cumulus cloud field was
affect BMI, DEC and CMI with bases of 4.5-7k ft and carried tempo
broken 5-6k ft ceilings til 21-22Z. Few cumulus clouds to
redevelop late Fri morning. ENE to NE winds or variable winds
around 5 kts this afternoon to veer SE at 4-6 kts Fri morning.
07
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$

NWS ILX Office Area Forecast Discussion