Mexico Beach Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

024
FXUS62 KTAE 151416
AFDTAE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1016 AM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025
...New UPDATE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025
- A warm and dry forecast this week maintains/worsens drought
   conditions while re-introducing elevated fire concerns. Use
   caution in any outdoor burning.
- Our next frontal system looks to approach the region on Sunday,
   bringing higher rainfall chances. Forecast rainfall is not
   likely to help drought conditions abate.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1014 AM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025
The main update was to lower dewpoints this afternoon by a few
degrees, based partly on MOS guidance and persistence from recent
days. This has downstream effects on Relative Humidity and
Apparent Temperatures.
&&
.SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 245 AM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025
Persistence remains the name of the game through Saturday, dry and
pleasant conditions prevail with high pressure overhead.
By the end of the week surface high pressure moves just offshore
from the southeast US. This will temporarily reestablish southerly
flow over the weekend across the region, leading to some moisture
return. Dew points will climb into the 60s ahead of our next frontal
system on Sunday. When compared to yesterday`s forecast, model
uncertainty has decreased slightly. Global models now have a
relatively deep trough moving across the northern Gulf states,
however the uncertainty now lies in how well the front holds
together as it approaches the southeast. Forcing for ascent appears
to either be weakening or fragmenting as the front approaches,
potentially leading to a decrease in shower/storm coverage as the
front enters the region. Stay tuned as the models continue to hone
in on our next frontal system over the coming days.
Expect daytime highs generally in the 80s with overnight lows
generally in the mid 50s to low 60s.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 650 AM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025
VFR conditions will prevail throughout the TAF period.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025
Gentle to moderate northeasterly winds induced by building surface
high pressure will make for favorable boating conditions through
Thursday. The afternoon sea breeze could bring directional changes
to the winds in the afternoon, but winds will generally remain under
15 knots. An increase in easterly flow is likely by Friday which
could lead to cautionary conditions heading into the weekend.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025
Dry and warm conditions prevail the next few days under persistent
northeast to easterly winds. Minimum relative humidities are
forecast to be in the 30s & 40s for much of the Tri-State area each
afternoon. Elevated fire concerns appear likely as the week
progresses thanks to prolonged warm & dry conditions under surface
high pressure. However, critical fire weather conditions are not
forecast to develop with relative humidities remaining above
criteria and winds not being high enough. Our next chance of rain
will be late this weekend as a front moves through but rainfall
amounts currently do not appear significant enough to ease current
drought conditions in place.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025
Little to no rainfall is anticipated through Saturday. Drought
conditions will therefore persist and/or worsen across much of the
Tri-State area. Visit www.weather.gov/tae/LocalDrought for more
information.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   85  60  85  60 /   0   0   0   0
Panama City   86  64  86  65 /   0   0   0   0
Dothan        86  59  87  59 /   0   0   0   0
Albany        84  58  85  58 /   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      83  58  84  57 /   0   0   0   0
Cross City    85  59  85  59 /   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  81  66  81  67 /   0   0   0   0
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Haner
SHORT TERM...Oliver
LONG TERM....Oliver
AVIATION...Oliver
MARINE...Oliver
FIRE WEATHER...Oliver
HYDROLOGY...Oliver

NWS TAE Office Area Forecast Discussion