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Mexico Beach Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

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FXUS62 KTAE 151416
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 1016 AM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 245 AM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025

- A warm and dry forecast this week maintains/worsens drought conditions while re-introducing elevated fire concerns. Use caution in any outdoor burning.

- Our next frontal system looks to approach the region on Sunday, bringing higher rainfall chances. Forecast rainfall is not likely to help drought conditions abate.

&&

.UPDATE... Issued at 1014 AM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025

The main update was to lower dewpoints this afternoon by a few degrees, based partly on MOS guidance and persistence from recent days. This has downstream effects on Relative Humidity and Apparent Temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 245 AM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Persistence remains the name of the game through Saturday, dry and pleasant conditions prevail with high pressure overhead.

By the end of the week surface high pressure moves just offshore from the southeast US. This will temporarily reestablish southerly flow over the weekend across the region, leading to some moisture return. Dew points will climb into the 60s ahead of our next frontal system on Sunday. When compared to yesterday`s forecast, model uncertainty has decreased slightly. Global models now have a relatively deep trough moving across the northern Gulf states, however the uncertainty now lies in how well the front holds together as it approaches the southeast. Forcing for ascent appears to either be weakening or fragmenting as the front approaches, potentially leading to a decrease in shower/storm coverage as the front enters the region. Stay tuned as the models continue to hone in on our next frontal system over the coming days.

Expect daytime highs generally in the 80s with overnight lows generally in the mid 50s to low 60s.

&&

.AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 650 AM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025

VFR conditions will prevail throughout the TAF period.

&&

.MARINE... Issued at 245 AM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Gentle to moderate northeasterly winds induced by building surface high pressure will make for favorable boating conditions through Thursday. The afternoon sea breeze could bring directional changes to the winds in the afternoon, but winds will generally remain under 15 knots. An increase in easterly flow is likely by Friday which could lead to cautionary conditions heading into the weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 245 AM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Dry and warm conditions prevail the next few days under persistent northeast to easterly winds. Minimum relative humidities are forecast to be in the 30s & 40s for much of the Tri-State area each afternoon. Elevated fire concerns appear likely as the week progresses thanks to prolonged warm & dry conditions under surface high pressure. However, critical fire weather conditions are not forecast to develop with relative humidities remaining above criteria and winds not being high enough. Our next chance of rain will be late this weekend as a front moves through but rainfall amounts currently do not appear significant enough to ease current drought conditions in place.

&&

.HYDROLOGY... Issued at 245 AM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Little to no rainfall is anticipated through Saturday. Drought conditions will therefore persist and/or worsen across much of the Tri-State area. Visit www.weather.gov/tae/LocalDrought for more information.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 85 60 85 60 / 0 0 0 0 Panama City 86 64 86 65 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 86 59 87 59 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 84 58 85 58 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 83 58 84 57 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 85 59 85 59 / 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 81 66 81 67 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. &&

$$

UPDATE...Haner SHORT TERM...Oliver LONG TERM....Oliver AVIATION...Oliver MARINE...Oliver FIRE WEATHER...Oliver HYDROLOGY...Oliver

NWS TAE Office Area Forecast Discussion

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