Mexico Beach Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

978
FXUS62 KTAE 141352
AFDTAE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
952 AM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025
...New UPDATE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 159 AM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025
- A warm and dry forecast this week maintains/worsens drought
   conditions while re-introducing elevated fire concerns. Use
   caution in any outdoor burning.
- Our next frontal system looks to approach the region on Sunday,
   current guidance is uncertain on shortwave placement which
   could impact rainfall amounts across the region.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 951 AM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025
Forecast is on track and no major changes are needed.
&&
.SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 159 AM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025
Not much change in the forecast. Dry conditions prevail throughout
the week as ridging aloft builds over the region. An expansive
surface high across the Great Lakes region sends a dry continental
polar (cP) air mass south across eastern CONUS. This will allow our
dew points to remain generally under 60 degrees, leading to pleasant
conditions through Friday.
By the end of the week the surface high dives south to just offshore
from the southeast US. This will temporarily reestablish southerly
flow over the weekend across the region, leading to some moisture
return. Dew points will climb into the 60s ahead of our next frontal
system on Sunday. When compared to yesterday`s forecast, model
uncertainty has increased on where the placement of the shortwave
will be. Should the shortwave originate further into the Southern
Plains it could allow the upstream trough to dig deeper into the
south, moving across the north Gulf states. Conversely, if the
shortwave originates in the Central Plains, then the trough may
not be as amplified. The former would mean forcing for ascent
would be more readily available to induce weather across the
region, vs the latter which would result in weak forcing and
limited weather impacts. Stay tuned as the models hone in on our
next frontal system over the coming days.
Expect daytime highs generally in the 80s with overnight lows
generally in the mid 50s to low 60s.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 615 AM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025
VFR conditions expected throughout the TAF period.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 159 AM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025
Gentle to moderate north-northeasterly winds induced by building
surface high pressure will make for favorable boating conditions
over the next several days. The afternoon sea breeze could bring
directional changes to the winds in the afternoon, but winds will
generally remain under 15 knots through the week. An increase in
easterly flow is likely by Friday which could lead to cautionary
conditions heading into the weekend.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 159 AM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025
Dry conditions prevail with warm afternoons the next few days under
persistent northeasterly winds. Min RHs are forecast to be in the
30s & 40s for much of the Tri-State area each afternoon.
Elevated fire concerns appear likely as the week progresses thanks
to prolonged warm & dry conditions under surface high pressure.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 159 AM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025
Little to no rainfall is anticipated through Saturday. Drought
conditions will therefore persist and/or worsen across much of the
Tri-State area. Visit www.weather.gov/tae/LocalDrought for more
information.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   86  60  84  58 /   0   0   0   0
Panama City   86  64  86  63 /   0   0   0   0
Dothan        86  59  85  57 /   0   0   0   0
Albany        85  59  84  57 /   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      85  59  83  57 /   0   0   0   0
Cross City    86  60  85  57 /   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  81  66  81  65 /   0   0   0   0
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Oliver
LONG TERM....Oliver
AVIATION...Oliver
MARINE...Oliver
FIRE WEATHER...Oliver
HYDROLOGY...Oliver

NWS TAE Office Area Forecast Discussion