Miami, Missouri Weather Forecast Discussion

096
FXUS63 KEAX 052042
AFDEAX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
342 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Cool today with light rain chances south of the KC Metro. Near
  record cold max temperatures possible.
- Chilly tonight into tomorrow morning, with temperatures near
  record lows.
- Pleasant conditions with mostly clear skies and highs in the
  mid to upper 70s for the weekend.
- Warming trend begins next week, with above normal temperatures
  by Wednesday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 219 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
H5 analysis and water vapor imagery shows a deep, closed mid
level low spinning over northern Ontario this afternoon with
accompanying troughing extending southward into the mid
Mississippi Valley (including a 65+ knot mid level jet streak
rounding the base of the trough from Nebraska into northern
Illinois). At the surface, a cold front extends southwestward
from eastern Michigan through the MO Bootheel, curling back to
the west into southern Oklahoma. With just enough forcing and
model soundings showing a relatively saturated mid to upper
troposphere, sprinkles to even some light rain is ongoing across
portions of eastern Kansas into SW Missouri. This will continue
to drift to the east southeast through the remainder of the
afternoon hours and into the evening, and may bring up to one
tenth of an inch of rain to Linn County, KS and Bates County, MO
(with just a trace of rain further north - low levels still
remain dry, so quite a bit of evaporation will occur before
reaching the surface). Other than the light rain, cold air
advection and cloud cover has kept temperatures quite cool this
afternoon. As of 320 PM, the high temp at MCI has only been 65
degrees, which is 1 degree colder than the record low high for
the day of 66 degrees set back in 1905.
By later tonight, drier air will move in, drying out the
atmospheric profile (PWATs falling to around 0.5" to 0.6") with
skies clearing from northwest to southeast. With clear skies,
light winds, and low humidity, conditions will be quite
favorable for strong radiational cooling, allowing for
temperatures to drop into the mid to upper 40s for most
locations (around 50 degrees for the urban core of KC). Record
lows may be threatened, with STJ currently forecast to tie the
record and MCI forecast to remain just a couple degrees above
the record low. Some patchy fog may be possible toward sunrise.
Northwesterly mid level flow takes hold tomorrow on the
southwestern periphery of the mid/upper trough from eastern
Canada into the Great Lakes region and east of a ridge building
over the western CONUS, with surface high pressure building in.
Subsidence will keep skies mostly clear, with high temperatures
reaching the mid to upper 70s. Similar conditions are expected
for Sunday, although with the western ridge further impinging on
the region yielding mid level height rises, temperatures for
Sunday afternoon will likely be a couple/few degrees warmer.
The warming trend continues into next week as the western upper
ridge noses further eastward, with highs warming into the low to
mid 80s for Monday afternoon, along with some modest moisture
return as low level winds turn southerly (dew points increasing
from the mid to upper 40s into the mid 50s). A shortwave trough
embedded along the eastern edge of the ridge is progged to
approach the region Monday night into Tuesday, which will allow
for a chance for isolated showers and thunderstorms overnight
Monday into early Tuesday.
As we head into mid to late week, global models suggest the
upper ridge becoming more highly amplified, with the ridge axis
shifting eastward and becoming centered over our region by
Thursday. This would bring even warmer temperatures, with highs
in the mid 80s to near 90 degrees currently forecast for Wed and
Thurs afternoons.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Fri Sep 5 2025
Patchy light rain continues south of Interstate 70, with IXD
being the only terminal reporting light rain at this time. This
light rain will exit to the east southeast by later this
afternoon. VFR conditions should persist, with clouds clearing
from northwest to southeast by later this evening into late
tonight, with WNW winds becoming more westerly and relaxing to
around 5 knots or less. Some patchy fog may be possible Saturday
morning, but not enough confidence at this time to include any
mention in the 18z TAF.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...BMW
AVIATION...BMW

NWS EAX Office Area Forecast Discussion