Miami, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

919
FXUS64 KAMA 121856
AFDAMA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
156 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025
...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 154 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025
Showers and thunderstorms are likely across the Panhandles on
Saturday into Saturday night. Chances exist for flash flooding and
severe thunderstorms are still present, mainly across the western
Panhandles.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 154 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025
Today, no major chances to the forecast are being implemented. Highs
are expected to range in the 90`s again today, with a few upper 80`s
possible in the west. Breezy, southerly winds will prevail through
the day time hours.
Saturday... A high chance for showers and thunderstorms are still
expected for the combined Panhandles. The risk for flooding prevails
as prevalent; however, confidence on impacts is decreasing due to
continued uncertainty amongst models concerning QPF. A low risk for
severe thunderstorms remains in place for the western combined
Panhandles tomorrow afternoon and evening. The synopsis on how the
event will unfold starts with the entrance of our incoming upper
level trough. The wave will push out from New Mexico and slowly
transition across our CWA through the entire day. The upper trough
should finally exit our area by Sunday morning, after sunrise. Most
guidance shows consensus on three different waves of precipitation
effecting the CWA throughout the weekend. The first round should
graze the far western Panhandles in the late morning. There is also
a chance that this wave doesn`t make it to the CWA and stays in New
Mexico. The second round should take place in the afternoon and
evening. This is also the time frame for our severe thunderstorm
potential. Finally, the third round should begin after sunset and
continue through the night and into Sunday morning. This is the time
frame with the highest likelihood for flooding.
Beginning with the severe potential, A marginal environment is
present in the western Panhandles. Though forecast sounding continue
to show better signs for heavy rainfall and high moisture, SBCAPE,
500 mb heights, and 0-6 km bulk shear are sufficient enough for some
severe hail. Though damaging winds look to have a lower chance of
occurrence, fast storm motions may be enough to help generate +58 mph
wind gusts out ahead of thunderstorms, especially if they congeal
into a line. Severe thunderstorm probability falls of quickly by the
night time hours due to the lack of day time heating. There should
still be enough elevated instability to have thunderstorms continue
through the night, though.
Based off this morning`s 12Z CAMs compared to the global models, the
main concerns with the flash flood chances tomorrow are a
combination of fast storm motion and modest storm coverage. From
forecast model soundings, storm motion ranges between 20-30 kts.
This is too fast for flash flood development, even with high rain
rates. The coverage of the showers and thunderstorms should also be
lower compared to the global models, but some CAMs like the FV3 and
NAMNest are putting zero QPF in our northern zones. That said, the
global models continue to be quite bullish, and CAMs may be under-
representing the stratiform rain component we expect tomorrow night
alongside the thunderstorms. After some discussion WPC concerning
the matter, we have both opted to leave the Slight ERO alone for the
time being given this uncertainty. Additionally, we will also hold
off on a Flood Watch for the same reasons listed above. We will
continue to monitor further chances in the hours leading up to the
start time of the event; but in either scenario, localized flash
flooding is still possible for the western half of the CWA. The
highest areas of concern remain to be low-lying areas and urban
zones that receive high rain rates poorly.
Rangel
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025
Sunday will continue to see the effects of ongoing precipitation
from what began on Saturday. Most showers will be confined to the
east with the progression of the upper trough, and rain rate are
expected to decrease with time. A few models, like the operational
GFS and NAM12, favor the idea of precipitation redeveloping on the
backside of the upper level system Sunday evening. This would bring
more thunderstorms to the eastern Panhandles, and potentially higher
flooding concerns for the day. However, most other guidance suggests
that precipitation chances will propagate eastward with the trough,
out of our area.
Though the NBM seems conservative with it`s PoP values, daily shower
and thunderstorm chances for the combined Panhandles should continue
most days of next week. The coverage of the storms is still looking
low, so PoPs will remain unchanged at this time. High temperatures
for the coming days should range in the 80`s with some 90`s possible
in the southern Texas Panhandle. By Wednesday and into Thursday,
guidance suggest a weak upper trough will dig southward into the
High Plains. This would create another weak cold front that could
put some locations, namely the northern zones of our CWA, back into
the 70`s for highs.
Rangel
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025
TAFs prevail as VFR for the new 18Z period. Like yesterday,
breezy winds will continue at the surface from the southwest all
afternoon. By the evening and overnight time frame, breezy surface
winds are expected to last a bit longer after nightfall. Winds
may not become light (

NWS AMA Office Area Forecast Discussion