Middle Haddam, Connecticut Weather Forecast Discussion

469
FXUS61 KOKX 011846
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
246 PM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A large area of high pressure builds in from the north into Thursday
and then remains over the Northeast and Mid Atlantic through the
weekend. The high then moves slowly offshore the beginning of
next week with a cold front approaching the area late Tuesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
After near record warmth to close September, the month of October
opens with a more typical autumn air mass.
Large dome of high pressure centered over Quebec continues to build
south over the Northeast through tonight. The tightened pressure
gradient between the building high and a pair of tropical cyclones
to our south and east over the Atlantic has led to gusty NE flow
locally, though these winds diminish into this evening as the
gradient relaxes some, but not entirely. The lingering flow could
mitigate the most efficient radiative cooling tonight, but it`s not
out of the question some areas decouple and cool a bit more than
forecast. Skies remain clear with the high pressure and
subsidence as temperatures fall back into the 40s for most, or
lower 50s in the NYC metro. Coldest spots in Orange Co could
fall into the upper 30s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Sprawling ridge and surface high pressure dominates the period
as the center settles over the Northeast.
Thursday likely the coolest day this week with the core of the autumn
air mass in place. Highs in the afternoon should get into the
mid 60s just about everywhere, or about 5 degrees below normal for
early October. A cirrus veil looks to move in by late afternoon
from the west, otherwise abundant sunshine prevails.
Another cool night then expected, and with lighter flow, anticipate
more efficient radiative cooling and could see the typical spots
in Orange County and the LI Pine Barrens fall into the upper 30s
into Friday morning. Blended in MAV/MET data with the national
blended guidance to better capture this.
The center of the high looks to drift overhead on Friday, and
absent the lingering cirrus, sunshine continues in calm conditions
and seasonable. By late day, the upper ridge over the eastern
two thirds of the CONUS begins to translate east, helping to
usher in a warmer air mass for the weekend.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key Points:
* Vertically stacked high pressure will remain in place this weekend
  into early next week with dry conditions and above normal temps.
* The surface high will slide east east Monday night into Tuesday
  and the ridge aloft will flatten as a cold front slowly approaches
  from the west. There is a chance of showers Tuesday night into
  Wednesday, and if the latest ECMWF is correct even this time frame
  could remain dry.
* Temperatures through most of the period will remain well above
  normal. Temps on Wed will depend on the progression of the front,
  and could also end up well above rather than closer to normal if
  the frontal timing is slower than forecast.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure builds southward into the region through the TAF
period.
VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period.
NE gusty winds subside tonight. Wind direction becomes more easterly
on Thursday. Possible sea breezes develop Thursday afternoon.
Wind speeds near 10-15 kt this afternoon with gusts near 20-25 kt
decrease closer to 10 kt late this afternoon into this evening with
gusts near 20 kt. Gusts subside this evening. Wind speed remains
near 5-10 kt thereafter through the rest of the TAF period.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
End time of gusts could be 1-3 hours off from TAF.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
Thursday-Monday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
SE-S swell from a pair of tropical cyclones in the western
Atlantic and an easterly wind wave continue to produce 6 to 10
ft seas on coastal ocean waters today. In addition, NE gusts 25
to 30 kt remain possible into early this evening on all waters
before diminishing.
Small Craft Advisory (SCA) extended until 6Z Friday on the
ocean waters for lingering seas above 5 ft. Elsewhere, subsiding
NE winds should allow for the Advisory to expire on most the LI
Sound, back bays, south shore bays, and NY Harbor by early this
evening. Lingering seas above 5 ft likely persist on the
Sound east of the mouth of the CT River through tonight due to
shoaling of the swells between Montauk Point and Block Island.
Winds and seas then remain below SCA levels from Fri through
Mon night as swell subsides and high pressure remains over the
waters.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic issues expected through early next week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Coastal Flood Statement remains in effect for coastal Suffolk,
Nassau, and Queens for high surf impacting the oceanfront into
early this evening.
Southerly swell from a pair of tropical cyclones over the Atlantic
will continue to produce large breaking waves along the oceanfront
into this evening. Expect surf of 6 to 10 ft due to an incoming S
swell of 6 ft 15s. Some additional beach flooding and minor damage
to dune structures is possible. Coastal flooding beyond the
beachfront is unlikely.
The swell and surf begin to lower this evening into Thursday.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ331-
     335-338-340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ332.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DR
NEAR TERM...DR
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BG
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...BG/DR
HYDROLOGY...BG/DR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

NWS OKX Office Area Forecast Discussion