Midtown, New Jersey Weather Forecast Discussion

563
FXUS61 KOKX 281938
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
338 PM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front passes through the area tonight, followed by
a stronger cold frontal passage Tuesday morning. A large area
of high pressure will then build south out of eastern Canada
and into the area through the end of the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Upper ridging east of the Mississippi River Valley and troughing
developing across eastern Canada will allow a series of dry
cold fronts to pass through the area the next couple days. The
first of which will be dissipating as it crosses the area
tonight, passing south of LI during the early morning hours
Monday.
Expect mostly clear skies (minus a few high clouds) with light
W/SW winds becoming N/NE behind the cold front.
Lows will range from the mid 50s inland and in the Pine Barrens
region of LI, to the lower and mid 60s across the NYC metro.
This is about 6 to 10 degrees above normal. Deviated from the
NBM in some of the normally colder spots due to good radiational
cooling.
A drier and slightly cooler airmass will follow on Monday,
largely due to high cloud cover and a deformation zone well
north of multiple tropical cyclones out in the Atlantic. Some of
the higher level moisture from these systems will get drawn
northward as clouds. It always is a bit of a challenge with the
opaqueness of high clouds, but the GFS supports the NBM`s
aggressive nature with increasing RH levels above 400 mb.
However, did slow the increase of the cloud cover slightly due
to some of the uncertainty. Still expect to see a fair amount
of sun, especially the first half of the day.
Stayed with NBM highs in the in the upper 70s. Box and whisker
plots show both the median and deterministic temperatures skewed
toward the 75th percentile. It would not be surprising if
temperatures were even a bit higher, but high cloud cover
leaves some uncertainty.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A stronger cold front drops down across the area Tuesday
morning this time with a cooler airmass to follow. However, the
drop in temperatures will not be noticeable until we get into
Tuesday night as it lags a bit. Lows Monday night will be
similar to the previous night with lows in the lower to 50s in
the cooler locations to the lower and mid 60s across the NYC
metro. High cloud cover looks to limit the extent of the
cooling.
Highs for Tuesday will once again be in the upper 70s to around
80. High clouds will slowly decrease from north to south during
the day, becoming mostly clear Tuesday night. NE winds on
Tuesday will strengthen Tuesday night as the pressure gradient
strengthens between the building high to the north and the broad
area of low pressure off the Southeast and Mid Atlantic coasts.
Gusts up to 20 mph will be possible after midnight. Cold advection
though will allow for lows to return to near normal, ranging
from the upper 40s to mid and upper 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Dry through the period.
The forecast period begins with a sharpening upper trough diving
through Atlantic Canada and New England, string strong sfc high
pressure in the confluence zone to its rear across Ontario and
Quebec. This will bring cooler conditions into Thu, and the pressure
gradient between the high and the outer envelop of two departing
tropical cyclones well to the S/SE (Hurricane Humberto and what
should become the next named Atlantic storm) will generate breezy
conditions out of the NE Wed into Thu, with some gusts up to 25 mph.
High temps on Wed will be mostly 65-70, and remain in the 60s for
Thu. Some valley spots well inland could fall to the upper 30s Wed
night and Thu night. At Central Park, the fcst high of 64 on Thu
would be the coolest since June 15th, and the fcst low of 51 Thu
night the coolest since June 1st.
As the trough to the NE pulls away and heights rise aloft in its
wake as a large upper anticyclone builds E from the center of the
CONUS, a warming trend will ensue for late week into the weekend,
with highs on Fri once again 65-70 and into the 70s for the weekend.
For specific information regarding Hurricane Humberto and Tropical
Storm Imelda, see the latest forecasts from the National Hurricane
Center.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A weakening cold front moves through the terminals tonight.
High pressure then builds in through Monday.
VFR.
Light W to SW wind into the early evening with a seabreeze at
KJFK and KISP, with a possibility of the seabreeze reaching
KLGA late in the day. Confidence in the seabreeze at KEWR and
KTEB has lowered and removed the TEMPO with the amendments.
Winds become light N to NE this evening and into the overnight,
and E to SE Monday. There is a chance that outside of the NYC
metro terminals winds will be light and variable late tonight
through Monday.
NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Late afternoon seabreeze remains possible at KLGA 20Z to 21Z,
with a lowered possibility at KEWR and KTEB, and removed the
TEMPO.
No unscheduled amendments expected.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
Monday afternoon - Tuesday: VFR.
Wednesday and Thursday: VFR. NE gusts around 15-25 kt possible, with
the highest gusts at the coastal terminals.
Friday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
A building southerly swell from multiple tropical out in the
western Atlantic, but well away from the waters will result in
increasing seas with the potential for SCA conditions on the
ocean waters after midnight Tuesday. Seas are forecast to build
to 7 to 10 ft by daybreak Wednesday. In addition, NE gusts 25
to 30 kt are expected on the ocean waters late Tuesday night as
the pressure gradient strengthens between building high pressure
to the north and the broad area of low pressure off the
Southeast and Mid Atlantic coasts. Gusts will be close to 25 kt
elsewhere during this time.
NE flow with gusts 25-30 kt are likely on the ocean from Wed
into Thu. There could be times when gusts on non-ocean waters
reach 25 kt Wed morning and again late Wed night. Ocean seas
peaking at 8-11 ft daytime Wed should gradually subside
thereafter, and may not completely fall below 5 ft until daytime
Fri.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic issues expected this week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
With a continuous NE flow during mid week along with large
swells from Humberto and Imelda, total water levels and surf
will both be on the increase. Coastal flooding appears unlikely
as we will be in between moon phases, but high surf, dangerous
rip currents, and some minor oceanfront beach flooding/erosion
may be possible Wed/Thu.
There is a low rip current risk through this evening with waves
around 2 ft and light winds.
The last regular surf zone forecast for the season was issued
today. Forecasts will resume on Thursday, May 21, 2026, before
the next Memorial Day weekend.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BG/DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...BG
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...BG/DW
HYDROLOGY...BG/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

NWS OKX Office Area Forecast Discussion