Mikado, Michigan Weather Forecast Discussion

777
FXUS63 KAPX 111758
AFDAPX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
158 PM EDT Thu Sep 11 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Patchy fog possible again tonight.
- Scattered shower chances, and maybe a rumble of thunder, Friday
  night into Saturday.
- Trends favor dry and mild weather Sunday through at least the
  middle of next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 157 PM EDT Thu Sep 11 2025
Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Mid-upper level ridging continues to
build across the nation`s midsection this afternoon with longwave
ridging expected to dominate the pattern locally through the vast
majority of the 7-day forecast period.
Possible exception to this arrives Friday night into Saturday as
shortwave troughing (tied to closed low pressure near Hudson Bay)
carves across the northeastern periphery of said ridging. Attendant
weak/moisture-starved cold front to our north is expected to cross
the area during the day Saturday while low pressure ramps up
upstream lee of the Rockies with a warm front extending across the
Plains into the mid-MS/Ohio Valleys. Combination of modest upper-
level support and broad isentropic ascent from upstream warm front
may support some showers through the early weekend time frame.
Forecast Details: Morning stratus has been slow to clear with many
over the northern half of the forecast area only seeing brief breaks
in cloud cover. Farther south where sun has been more dominant, an
expanding cu field is underway. Little change anticipated to this
overall, with variable cloud cover expected to continue through the
remainder of the day. Lake breeze convergence axis across interior
eastern U.P. may support a rogue shower or two through sunset, but
otherwise dry conditions are expected. For tonight, redevelopment of
stratus and patchy fog is possible, with some of that fog
potentially being locally dense (as was seen last night). Any
stratus tonight is likely slow to burn off again Friday, but
eventual mostly sunny skies should win out with just a slow uptick
in high cloud and temperatures topping out in the 70s to low 80s
area-wide.
Scattered shower chances spread from northwest to southeast across
the forecast area Friday night into Saturday with PoPs lingering
into Saturday afternoon. Not expecting a washout by any
stretch, but may have to dodge some nuisance showers, and
potentially a rumble of thunder, across parts of northern MI
early this weekend. Saturday`s highs back into the 70s area-
wide.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 157 PM EDT Thu Sep 11 2025
Pattern Forecast: Upper-level ridging and attendant surface high
pressure are expected to prevail across the middle of the country
through the long-term forecast period, and potentially beyond,
although confidence really decreases toward mid-late next week as
some ensemble signals point toward ridging beginning to break down
with a more active pattern returning.
Forecast Details: Little in the way of sensible weather anticipated
to wrap up the weekend through early/mid next week. High
temperatures each day expected to climb several degrees above normal
for mid-September -- largely ranging from the mid-70s to low 80s.
Suppose as we get into Tuesday/Wednesday time frame, better moisture
and daytime instability would begin to better support some potential
for daytime pop up showers/storms along inland penetrating lake
breezes, but far too low of confidence to introduce that into the
forecast at this point.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 114 PM EDT Thu Sep 11 2025
Pesky low clouds linger into this afternoon, with SCT040 in
spots. Cannot rule out some brief MVFR CIGs early, but trends
suggest more in the way of low VFR clouds/CIGs. Main concern
through this TAF cycle will be the potential for patchy BR/FG
tonight. Potential exists for IFR CIGs/VIS for a couple sites,
much like this last night. Thus, have mention of BR at the sites
tonight. Looks like a pretty good signal for KAPN especially.
Otherwise, winds remain easterly through this afternoon,
shifting south and southwest on Friday with little in the way of
precip chances. Any lingering low clouds/stratus should quickly
mix out with VFR mid-late morning onward on Friday.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MJG
LONG TERM...MJG
AVIATION...JLD

NWS APX Office Area Forecast Discussion