Mill Iron, Montana Weather Forecast Discussion

048
FXUS65 KBYZ 271950
AFDBYZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
150 PM MDT Sat Sep 27 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Much above average temperatures through Thursday.
- 20-40% precipitation chances Tuesday across the lower
  elevations.
- Pattern change expected Friday into the weekend with a change to
  cooler and wetter conditions.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Through next Saturday...
Upper level ridging will keep temperatures well above normal over
the next few days. Dry conditions will also persist. Upper level
flow from the west will continue to bring in wildfire smoke
decreasing air quality over the region today into early Sunday.
Upper level flow Sunday will switch to be more southwesterly
helping to clear smoke out of the region. Weather will become more
active starting Monday in the Absaroka/Beartooth mountains as
southwest flow brings 30-40% chances for showers and
thunderstorms. Tuesday, a weak 500 mb wave will pass through
creating broad low pressure on the lee of the Rockies. Southerly
and easterly 850 mb winds will result helping to advect moisture
into Montana. Weak Omega will help to bring 20-40% chances for
precipitation Tuesday west of Miles City. Mainly showers with
some weak thunderstorms are expected.
Wednesday, a large 500 mb trough is expected to become more
prominent off the Pacific Northwest coast. This system is expected
to move inland late in the workweek into the weekend. Ensemble
clusters are in disagreement as to what this will look like.
However, there is general agreement in a cooler pattern with
persistent precipitation chances. Some models are indicating a
more pronounced trough which would bring colder temperatures and
higher precipitation chances while others are indicating the
trough may morph into broad troughing. At this time there is
higher confidence in a drop in temperatures than precipitation
amounts. The NBM is giving a 40-60% chance of getting greater
than 0.25 inches of precipitation across the region.
Temperatures will be in the 80S F through Tuesday (10-15 degrees
above average). Temperatures cool slightly Wednesday and Thursday
with temperatures in the mid 70s to low 80s F. Temperatures cool
significantly for Friday and Saturday with widespread 60s F
expected Saturday. Torgerson
.AVIATION...
Slant range visibility will continue to be reduced due to regional
wildfire smoke, but there should be gradual improvement over the
next 24 hours. Otherwise, VFR will persist through the period
under strong high pressure aloft. By late Sunday afternoon, a few
light showers are possible over the Beartooth-Absarokas. JKL
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 051/085 055/084 056/083 055/078 052/078 051/067 045/062
    00/U    00/U    11/B    21/U    01/B    34/W    43/W
LVM 045/084 050/081 050/076 044/073 044/073 041/062 036/059
    00/U    11/U    23/T    32/W    12/W    45/W    44/W
HDN 045/086 051/084 051/085 052/079 049/080 048/069 043/063
    00/K    00/U    11/B    41/U    10/U    33/W    43/W
MLS 047/086 053/087 056/087 056/081 051/082 051/072 046/065
    00/K    00/U    00/U    21/U    10/U    22/W    33/W
4BQ 052/086 055/086 058/085 055/078 052/081 052/071 046/063
    00/U    00/U    00/U    10/U    00/U    22/W    43/W
BHK 048/087 052/087 055/086 052/079 049/083 049/072 044/065
    00/U    00/B    00/U    10/U    00/U    21/B    32/W
SHR 047/085 050/084 049/082 048/076 046/080 045/068 039/061
    00/B    10/U    01/B    21/U    00/U    23/W    44/W
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.
&&
$$
weather.gov/billings

NWS BYZ Office Area Forecast Discussion