Miller Park, Ohio Weather Forecast Discussion

399
FXUS63 KIWX 191045
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
645 AM EDT Fri Sep 19 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry conditions today, with highs in the mid-upper 80s. Lows
  tonight will fall into the 50s, low 60s.
- A more active pattern begins Saturday and continues through
  the work week. This shift welcomes much needed chances for
  rain (30-65 percent at times), with a few thunderstorms
  possible.
- Temperatures through the work week will drop into the 70s for
  highs, and remain in the 50s, low 60s.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 454 AM EDT Fri Sep 19 2025
Our omega block lingers in place for another day before shifting
eastward this weekend, allowing for much needed precipitation
chances to build into our area through the work week. At the moment,
we`re beneath the upper level ridge, with a strong low over northern
Quebec/NE CONUS, and a digging trough/closed low across the northern
plains. As the low over Quebec shifts further northeast, it allows
the ridge to advance and the plains trough to work it`s way into our
CWA-especially by Sunday. Moisture is fairly limited until Sunday.
Still, have some low chances late tonight into Saturday-though
limited moisture seems to keep the best chances west of our CWA.
Have limited pops to areas west of I 69 until Saturday afternoon,
when I have 20-30 percent chances reaching further east. Otherwise,
expect increasing cloud cover. We finally get some return flow off
the gulf by Sunday, which brings us deeper moisture to work with as
the upper low builds over the upper Great Lakes. At the moment have
45-65 percent chance for rain, with a few thunderstorms (Non-
severe). High temperatures today into Saturday will be predominantly
in the mid-upper 80s, then drop into the upper 70s, low-mid 80s
Sunday once we get better rain/isolated t-storm chances.
Flow becomes almost zonal over our area for Monday-Monday evening,
and while we`ll see a break in precipitation chances Mon AM, we`ll
see a return by the afternoon as a shortwave moves through. Best
chances (45-65 percent) will be in the afternoon during peak
heating, with scattered t-storms possible. Tuesday into Wednesday
the trough deepens/stronger wave moves through-with a cold front
diving southeastward through the day Tuesday-stalling out through
Wednesday. Chances remain in the 20-50 percent range, best Mon night
into Tuesday. Chances are highest Wed afternoon, particularly south
of US 30 closer to the stalled front. High pressure to the north of
the system that dives into the central plains/gulf coast will begin
to impact chances in MI/Far northern IN/NW OH. Have 20-30 percent
largely through Friday--though I suspect that it`s possible late Wed
PM/Thu AM that our CWA is completely dry. Model guidance regarding
the closed low (or longer wave trough) developing will determine our
chances for Thursday afternoon into Friday, with solutions like the
ECMWF building a broad upper low over MO, and the frontal zone
lifting north into our area Thu afternoon-into Friday (along with
the center of the low Fri Eve). The GFS washes the low out as it
progresses East, with the wave persisting through somewhat zonal
flow south of our CWA (and a stronger low to the northeast CONUS).
Kept consensus for that period as well, about 20-40 percent.
High temperatures Monday into Friday will linger in the 70s, with
lows in the 50s and low 60s.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 645 AM EDT Fri Sep 19 2025
A weak sfc trough associated with a short wave skirting across
southeast Canada will stall out across far northern
Indiana/northwest Ohio this morning. Any patchy fog of note to
this point has been confined to areas in wake of this sfc
trough, primarily across extreme NE Indiana into southern Lower
Michigan. Would expect any patchy fog across KSBN/KFWA will be
more shallow in nature and will mix out quickly this morning.
While cannot completely rule out brief vsby restriction through
12Z, will keep TAFs VFR. Otherwise today VFR conditions persist
with a few high based cu possible. A dampening lead short wave
should also lift northeast into northern Illinois this afternoon
keeping isolated shower threat west of the terminals given
proximity of instability axis across central/northern Illinois.
Toward the end of this period, a negatively tilted upper trough
should allow better moisture axis to push into northwest Indiana
which could provide isolated shower potential at KSBN.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...MCD
AVIATION...Marsili

NWS IWX Office Area Forecast Discussion